760
FXUS64 KMAF 030510
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1210 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1208 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK ON THURSDAY, BEFORE
GRADUALLY DECREASING INTO NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
(10-30% CHANCE) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY,
MAINLY WEST OF THE PECOS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
SPANNING ACROSS THE THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH OUR REGION ALONG ITS
WESTERN PERIPHERY. THIS ALLOWS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERTURES TO
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WHERE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER TRIPLE
DIGITS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MOST. ENHANCED MOISTURE IN THE UPSLOPE
FLOW REGIME YIELDS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED (10-30% CHANCE)
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO. PULSE STORMS IN THIS WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THOUGH WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED, WE CANNOT RULE OUT THE CHANCE OF LOCALIZED NUISANCE FLASH
FLOODING DUE TO SLOW-MOVING/NEARLY STATIONARY SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS A LITTLE WESTWARD THURSDAY, YIELDING A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES. THIS RESULTS IN TRIPLE DIGIT
TEMPERTURES BECOMING WIDESPREAD, SPANNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE PERMIAN
BASIN, TRANS PECOS, PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, AND ALONG THE
RIO GRANDE. SOME SPOTS IN THE BIG BEND CAN ANTICIPATE HIGHS BETWEEN
105 AND 108 DEGREES. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MANY OF THE SAME AREAS
(GENERALLY WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER), WITH THE BEST CHANCES FAVORED
OVER OUR WESTERNMOST ZONES. THOUGH SURFACE TROUGHING MAY INCREASE
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SLIGHTLY. GIVEN THESE STORMS SHOULD FORM IN A
SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT AS TODAY, EXPECTED HAZARDS WILL BE THE SAME.
GREENING
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
FRIDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED OVER THE
CAROLINAS, AND EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO INTO CHIHUAHUA. REMNANTS OF T.D. EDOUARD ARE FORECAST TO
PERSIST OVER THE UPPER TEXAS COAST, TOO FAR EAST TO INFLUENCE
CONDITIONS HERE IN WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. A LARGE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO RESIDE OVER THE PACNW, EXTENDING DOWN THE WEST
COAST AND ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM T.S. MARIE INTO THE
REGION ON SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. NAEFS ENSEMBLES INCREASE PWATS OVER
THE NORTHWEST CWA TO 2-3 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL, AND THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW TO KEEP A CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN
PLAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. CHANCES DIMINISH GOING INTO THE WEEKEND, AS THE RIDGE
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP BACK WEST, ENDING UP OVER OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS
BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER, DESPITE THE RIDGE BUILDING BACK WEST, IT WILL BE WEAK,
W/THICKNESSES FORECAST TO DECREASE INTO NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT,
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST, W/HIGHS
AVERAGING 10-12 F ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN "COOL"
INTO NEXT WEEK, AMOUNTING TO ONLY 8-10 F ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY BY
MONDAY/TUESDAY. THE WARMTH PERSISTS, BUT THE STRENGTHENING WEST
COAST TROUGH HINTS AT FINALLY BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE OVER THE NEXT
FEW WEEKS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED TS WILL
DEVELOP IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TRANS PECOS THAT MAY
AFFECT SOME TAF SITES. CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS
AT THIS TIME.
HENNIG
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 76 102 75 100 / 0 0 10 0
CARLSBAD 74 101 73 100 / 20 10 20 0
DRYDEN 77 101 76 100 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 75 99 73 98 / 0 10 10 10
GUADALUPE PASS 70 90 69 89 / 20 10 30 10
HOBBS 73 99 72 98 / 20 0 10 0
MARFA 65 91 63 90 / 20 40 30 40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 76 100 75 98 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 77 100 76 98 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 77 102 75 100 / 20 0 10 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...10
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