325
FXUS64 KMAF 030842
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
342 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 342 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK TODAY, POTENTIALLY
TYING A DAILY RECORD HIGH! TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY DECREASE INTO
NEXT WEEK.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED (10-40% CHANCE) SHOWERS/STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY, MAINLY WEST OF THE PECOS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
CURRENT 500MB RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RESIDING
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. TODAY, RIDGING BUILDS BACK OVER OUR REGION,
PUSHING TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THIS AFTERNOON
COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS ARE PROGGED TO OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF THE PERMIAN BASIN, SE NM, THE UPPER TRANS PECOS, AND THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY. A FEW LOCATIONS WITHIN THE BIG BEND MAY REACH UP TO
108 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN A FORECAST HIGH OF 101 DEGREES
THIS AFTERNOON AT MAF, WE COULD TIE THE DAILY HIGH RECORD SET ON
SEPTEMBER 3, 2012! HIGHS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN TAPER DOWN A DEGREE
OR TWO, BUT REMAIN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. LOWS
TONIGHT FALL TO THE 60S NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH LOW TO MID
70S EXPECTED FOR MOST.
UPSLOPE FLOW MAY YIELD ISOLATED TO SCATTERED (10-40%) SHOWERS/STORMS
BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER
AND OVER PORTIONS OF SE NM. THE BEST (40%) CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED
NEAR THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES OF OUR AREA.
SHOULD ANY STORMS BECOME STRONG, THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL INCLUDE
GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK OVER THE GREAT PLAINS THIS WEEKEND.
HOWEVER, THE RIDGE WILL NOT BE AS POTENT AS IT ONCE WAS. AS A
RESULT, HIGHS SATURDAY REMAIN LARGELY IN THE 90S ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE NE PERMIAN BASIN,
THE UPPER TRANS PECOS, SE NM, AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. AS IT
STANDS, SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE OUR LAST DAY OF WIDESPREAD HIGHS BEYOND
THE CENTURY MARK! EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE CORE OF THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD, TOWARD THE SE CONUS. DECREASING THICKNESS
ALOFT ALLOWS FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. EACH AFTERNOON SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE
HIGHS PREDOMINANTLY IN THE 90S. THOSE IN AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN
CAN EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 80S. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT BECOMES RESTRICTED TO
ISOLATED AREAS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WITHIN THE EXTENDED FORECAST ARE PROGGED TO RANGE IN THE 60S TO
70S. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, LOWS IN THE 60S START TO BECOME MORE
COMMONPLACE. THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS DRY FOR MOST OF THE
REGION, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND PORTIONS OF
SE NM. IN THESE AREAS, MOISTURE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE COMBINES WITH UPSLOPE FLOW TO PROMOTE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS MOST AFTERNOONS. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL TEND TO
FAVOR LOCATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED TS WILL
DEVELOP IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TRANS PECOS THAT MAY
AFFECT SOME TAF SITES. CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS
AT THIS TIME.
HENNIG
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 103 76 102 75 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 102 73 101 73 / 10 10 10 20
DRYDEN 102 77 102 75 / 0 0 0 10
FORT STOCKTON 100 75 100 73 / 10 0 0 10
GUADALUPE PASS 91 70 90 69 / 10 20 20 30
HOBBS 100 73 100 72 / 10 10 0 10
MARFA 92 64 91 63 / 20 10 30 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 101 76 100 75 / 0 0 0 10
ODESSA 100 77 100 75 / 10 0 0 10
WINK 102 77 102 75 / 10 0 0 10
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...10
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