918
FXUS64 KMAF 031825
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
125 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 125 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK TODAY AND FRIDAY,
NEARING RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE TERRITORY BOTH DAYS.
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY DECREASE INTO NEXT WEEK.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED (10-40% CHANCE) SHOWERS/STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY, MAINLY WEST OF THE PECOS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT RIDGING OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CONUS. MEANWHILE, THE REMNANTS OF EDOUARD REMAIN TO
THE EAST OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS WAY WESTWARD AGAIN TOWARDS THE GREAT
PLAINS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE, TEMPERATURES REMAIN
HOT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. HIGHS BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW TOP OUT
NEAR OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS, WITH LOW 90S IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS STAY GENERALLY IN THE LOW-TO-MID 70S. HOWEVER,
UPSLOPE FLOW AND PULSES ROUNDING THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
ARE ALREADY ALLOWING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST COVERAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING LOOKS TO BE FOR SIMILAR AREAS AS YESTERDAY (SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO AND FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE PECOS, ESPECIALLY
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN). CHANCES FOR THESE AREAS RANGE BETWEEN 20-
40%. HOWEVER, CAMS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND RRFS DO TRY TO BRING A
COUPLE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE PERMIAN BASIN AS WELL. AS A RESULT, 10-20% POPS HAVE BEEN
INCLUDED THERE AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPPER TRANS-PECOS. FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FEATURES SIMILAR CHANCES TO TODAY IN SIMILAR LOCATIONS.
THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IS CAMS TRY TO DEVELOP ISOLATED CONVECTION IN
THE FAR EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN TOMORROW THANKS TO THE RELATIVE
PROXIMITY OF EDOUARD'S REMNANTS (AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES).
SO FAR HAVE LEFT POPS AROUND 10-15% FOR THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN,
BUT THEY MAY BE INCREASED IN FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES IF TRENDS
CONTINUE. STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP BOTH DAYS COULD PRODUCE STRONG
WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. GOING INTO NEXT WEEK, IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES FINALLY
START TO TREND BACK DOWN - SEE THE LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS!
SPRANG
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER THE GREAT PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND, WITH ITS SOUTHWESTERN EDGE HOLDING ITS GRIP ON OUR AREA.
THIS YIELDS AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION SATURDAY, WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT CONFINED TO THE PECOS
RIVER/RIO GRANDE VALLEYS AND NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN
BASIN. THE GOOD NEWS IS SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LAST DAY OF
WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER RIDGE
SLOWLY MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. DECREASING
THICKNESSES WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERTURES TO GRADUALLY COOL A DEGREE
ALMOST DAILY NEXT WEEK. INCREASING GULF MOISTURE OVERRUNNING
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW YIELDS DAILY CHANCES OF CONVECTION ACROSS
THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. THE BEST CHANCES (20-40%) REMAIN
CONFINED TO THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND SURROUNDING AREAS. HOWEVER, IT'S
NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY THAT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
COULD SPREAD EASTWARD MID-TO-LATE NEXT WEEK. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS AND REFINE THE FORECAST AS NEW DATA WARRANTS IT.
GREENING
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PROB30S FOR -TSRA HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED FOR
HOB AND CNM, AND HAVE ALSO BEEN INTRODUCED FOR INK AND PEQ. TEMPOS
WILL BE ADDED IF NECESSARY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 76 102 75 100 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 73 101 73 100 / 10 10 20 0
DRYDEN 77 102 75 99 / 0 0 10 0
FORT STOCKTON 75 100 73 98 / 0 0 10 0
GUADALUPE PASS 70 90 69 89 / 20 20 30 10
HOBBS 73 100 72 98 / 10 0 10 10
MARFA 64 91 63 90 / 10 30 20 50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 76 100 75 98 / 0 0 10 0
ODESSA 77 100 75 98 / 0 0 10 0
WINK 77 102 75 100 / 0 0 10 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...13
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