530
FXUS64 KMAF 040732
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
232 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 138 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
- NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY. TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED (10-40% CHANCE) SHOWERS/STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY, MAINLY WEST OF THE PECOS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 138 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
TODAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND PERHAPS
THE UNOFFICIAL END TO SUMMER HEAT. THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER
NORMALLY MARKS THE BEGINNING OF NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
FROM THE SUMMER MONTHS AND THAT TREND SEEMS TO BE ON SCHEDULE.
THIS IS NOT TO SAY WE WON'T SEE MORE DAYS EXCEEDING THE CENTURY
MARK, BUT THEY WILL BE THE EXCEPTION AND NOT THE NORM AS HIGHS
GENERALLY SETTLE IN THE 90S THIS MONTH. HIGHS SATURDAY DROP A
COUPLE MORE DEGREES WITH THE ONLY 100S ALONG THE PECOS RIVER AND
OFF THE CAPROCK IN THE NORTHEASTERN PERMIAN BASIN.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
PLAINS THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS, UPPER RIDGING OVER WEST TEXAS AND
EASTERN NEW MEXICO WEAKENS AND FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIR TO ADVECT INTO THE
AREA. HIGHS DROP DOWN INTO THE MID 90S NEXT WEEK WHICH IS A
WELCOME RELIEF TO RECENT HEAT THOUGH STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THE NBM MAY BE UNDERESTIMATING RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEK,
ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER WHEN
DAYTIME HEATING COMBINES WITH BETTER MOISTURE TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS INTERESTING LOOKING WEST INTO THE PACIFIC.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A TROUGH IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES BECOMING
STATIONARY AND POSSIBLY PULLING IN MOISTURE FROM EAST PAC TROPICAL
SYSTEMS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO OUR CWA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
IN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEKEND, BUT IT WILL BE SOMETHING
TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
HENNIG
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 113 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
ISOLATED TS/SHRA IS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
THIS COULD AFFECT INK/PEQ THROUGH 08Z BEFORE ENDING. MORE TS WILL
DEVELOP AFTER 18Z FRIDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
HENNIG
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 102 74 100 74 / 20 20 0 0
CARLSBAD 101 73 100 73 / 20 10 0 30
DRYDEN 102 75 99 74 / 0 10 10 0
FORT STOCKTON 100 73 98 72 / 20 20 10 0
GUADALUPE PASS 90 69 90 69 / 10 20 20 10
HOBBS 100 72 98 71 / 20 20 10 20
MARFA 91 63 90 61 / 30 20 50 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 100 74 98 74 / 20 20 0 0
ODESSA 100 75 98 74 / 20 20 0 0
WINK 102 75 100 74 / 20 20 0 20
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...10
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