946
FXUS64 KMAF 090512
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1212 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1212 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
- HOT TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK WITH NEAR RECORD
HEAT POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD. STORM CHANCES
INCREASE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE PERMIAN
BASIN THURSDAY AND AGAIN LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
THE BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN U.S. THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND A
SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GUADALUPE AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS, MARFA PLATEAU,
AND PARTS OF THE BIG BEND THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. A
COUPLE OF CELLS THAT DEVELOP MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL AND BRIEF STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES UP TO 1.3 INCHES AND DCAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG. ISOLATED
SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE LOWER TO MID
70S OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. YET ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED UNDER THE PERSISTENT RIDGE ON
WEDNESDAY. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN THE MID 90S TO
AROUND 102 DEGREES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA, EXCEPT
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S IN THE MOUNTAINS/HIGHER TERRAIN.
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE GUADALUPE/DAVIS MOUNTAINS, MARFA PLATEAU, AND PARTS OF THE BIG
BEND AGAIN WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG A WEAK
BOUNDARY OVER EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
SOUTH PLAINS MAY APPROACH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF EDDY/LEA COUNTIES
LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING, SO WILL KEEP POPS AROUND 20% FOR THOSE
LOCATIONS. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE PERSIST ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE RETROGRADES WESTWARD OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE THIS WEEK,
BUT OUR FORECAST AREA WILL STILL REMAIN UNDER THE EASTERN INFLUENCE
OF THIS FEATURE. WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSES EMBEDDED ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE MAY PIVOT OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE
PERMIAN BASIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WHILE A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY ALSO SAGS TOWARD NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (10-40%) MAY SUBSEQUENTLY
DEVELOP OVER THESE LOCATIONS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
EVENING, WITH THE BEST CHANCES FAVORED FROM LEA COUNTY INTO THE
NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN AND WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS. OTHER
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED (20-50%) SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF THE WESTERN CWA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL TEND TO BUILD BACK OVER
WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD TOWARD THE GULF COAST STATES MONDAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN EACH DAY. THERE MAY ALSO BE LOW CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN
BASIN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE. THE BEST
CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO OUR WESTERN CWA THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND 103 DEGREES. FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY APPEAR TO BE THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE THIS TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 74 98 73 100 / 10 20 20 0
CARLSBAD 73 98 72 102 / 10 20 10 0
DRYDEN 75 100 75 101 / 10 0 0 10
FORT STOCKTON 73 97 73 100 / 10 10 0 10
GUADALUPE PASS 69 89 68 92 / 10 30 0 0
HOBBS 71 96 70 99 / 10 20 10 0
MARFA 63 89 62 91 / 10 40 0 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 75 97 74 99 / 10 10 20 0
ODESSA 75 97 74 99 / 10 10 10 0
WINK 74 99 74 101 / 10 10 10 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...10
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