713
FXUS64 KMAF 091954
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
254 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 251 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
- HOT TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK WITH NEAR RECORD
HEAT POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD. STORM CHANCES
INCREASE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE PERMIAN
BASIN THURSDAY AND AGAIN LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
IT'S SHAPING UP TO BE ANOTHER HOT DAY ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S (MAINLY IN/NEAR THE RIVER VALLEYS) THIS
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED (10-40% CHANCE) SHOWERS/STORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER AREAS WEST OF THE PECOS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THE BEST (~40%) ODDS WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS, WHERE A FEW CELLS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED. A COUPLE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY PERSIST NEAR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THOUGH
LATE THIS EVENING. SHOULD ANY STORMS BECOME STRONG, THE PRIMARY
THREATS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. TONIGHT'S LOWS FALL TO
THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS, WITH 60S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
CURRENT SURFACE OBS ALSO SHOW A COLD FRONT ORIENTED NE-SW ACROSS THE
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLES, STRETCHING TOWARD EASTERN
NEW MEXICO. IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN WHERE THIS FRONT WILL ULTIMATELY
END UP, BUT MODELS INDICATE A SLOW PROGRESSION SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD,
POSSIBLY REACHING OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY AID IN A FASTER
PROGRESSION, IMPACTING AFTERNOON HIGHS BY A DEGREE OR TWO.
ALTERNATIVELY, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS NORTH OF OUR REGION. AS
IT STANDS, TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AFTERNOON ARE AGAIN LARGELY
EXPECTED TO REACH THE 90S, WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT FORECAST FOR THOSE
NEAR AND ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS. LOW (10-30%) RAIN CHANCES ARE
FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN, SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, AND
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHALL
SERVE AS THE DRIVING FORCE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT IN OUR NORTHERN
PORTIONS. LOW (10-30%) RAIN CHANCES SHIFT TOWARD THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE PERMIAN BASIN TOMORROW EVENING, WITH THE BEST ODDS FAVORING OUR
EASTERNMOST COUNTIES.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
BY FRIDAY, THE WEAK COLD FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED DISTURBANCE EXIT
TO THE SOUTHEAST, WITH RAIN CHANCES DIMINISHING AND SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS ADVECTING WARMER TEMPERATURES. ON SATURDAY, MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN EXCESS OF 100 DEGREES,
APPROACHING RECORD TEMPERATURES. AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES, AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE TO THE EAST, ADVECTING IN COOLER
GULF MOISTURE, BRINGING TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY DOWN TO THE MID TO
UPPER 90S THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ADDITIONALLY, THE MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO THE AREA MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND THE SURROUNDING
PLAINS WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
VFR CONTINUES AT ALL TERMINALS. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BETWEEN
10-15KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 75 99 74 101 / 10 10 20 0
CARLSBAD 74 99 73 102 / 10 10 0 10
DRYDEN 75 100 76 102 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 73 98 74 100 / 0 10 10 0
GUADALUPE PASS 70 89 69 92 / 10 20 10 0
HOBBS 71 97 71 100 / 0 10 10 0
MARFA 63 90 63 92 / 0 30 10 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 74 98 75 99 / 0 10 10 0
ODESSA 75 97 76 99 / 0 0 10 0
WINK 75 99 76 102 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...93
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