851
FXUS64 KMAF 101146
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
646 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 645 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
- HOT TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK WITH NEAR RECORD
HEAT POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD. STORM CHANCES
INCREASE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE PERMIAN
BASIN TODAY AND AGAIN LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 159 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
CURRENT RADAR SHOWS OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER CONVECTION MOVING INTO
THE PERMIAN BASIN EARLY THIS MORNING. HI-RES MODELS SHOW THIS
BOUNDARY BECOMING STATIONARY LATER THIS MORNING AND WASHING OUT,
HAVING LITTLE EFFECT ON OUR WEATHER OTHER THAN A BRIEF WIND SHIFT.
A COLD FRONT FARTHER NORTH WILL MOVE SOUTH LATER TODAY AND
ENTER THE BASIN THIS EVENING. UNLIKE THE EARLIER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY,
THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT THAT CONVECTION FORMS AND MOVES
ALONG WITH THE FRONT BRINGING SOME RAIN TO THE NORTHEASTERN BASIN.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TOMORROW ENDING RAIN CHANCES IN THE
PERMIAN BASIN AND ONLY LEAVING RAIN CHANCES IN THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS. HIGHS TOMORROW ALSO RISE INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOW
100S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
TEMPERATURES INCREASE INTO THE LOW 100S FOR MANY ON SATURDAY AS
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS.
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY BEFORE
THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND COOLER AIR FROM THE GULF IS
ADVECTED INTO THE AREA NEXT WEEK. HIGHS BEGINNING SUNDAY WILL DROP
SLIGHTLY INTO THE 90S, COOLER THAN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT STILL
AT LEAST 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LITTLE
CHANGES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY TO OUR EAST. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER, MORE OF A SUMMERTIME PATTERN
THAN A FALL PATTERN. WE ARE STILL LOOKING FOR OUR FIRST STRONG
FALL COLD FRONT HERE.
HENNIG
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS TAF PERIOD. ANY
TS SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE TAF SITES AND NOT EXPECTED TO
DIRECTLY IMPACT ANY OF THEM.
HENNIG
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 99 74 101 75 / 10 20 0 0
CARLSBAD 99 73 102 74 / 10 10 10 10
DRYDEN 100 76 101 76 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 97 74 100 75 / 10 0 10 0
GUADALUPE PASS 88 69 91 70 / 20 10 10 10
HOBBS 96 71 99 72 / 20 10 0 0
MARFA 89 63 91 65 / 30 10 30 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 97 75 99 76 / 0 10 0 0
ODESSA 97 76 99 77 / 0 10 0 0
WINK 99 75 102 76 / 0 10 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...10
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