080
FXUS64 KMAF 110521
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1221 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1220 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
- HOT TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK WITH NEAR RECORD
HEAT POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD. STORM CHANCES
INCREASE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE PERMIAN
BASIN TODAY AND AGAIN LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS,
WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH NOSES ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A COLD
FRONT IS ADVANCING SOUTHWARD, ENFORCED BY OUTFLOW FROM STORMS BEHIND
THE FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DEVELOPING NEAR THE COLD FRONT OVER SE NM AND THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ALSO DEVELOPING WEST OF THE PECOS
RIVER, DRIVEN BY DAYTIME HEATING AND UPSLOPE FLOW. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE, WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY
THREAT. ISOLATED STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY NEAR THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS.
CURRENT OBS BEHIND THE FRONT LINE SHOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S.
TEMPERATURES LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE
BOUNDARY PUSHES. FOR NOW, EXPECT HIGHS TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS, WITH LOW 100S NEAR AND ALONG THE RIVER
VALLEYS. LOWS TONIGHT FALL TO THE 60S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES, WITH 70S ELSEWHERE.
THE FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE TOMORROW AS UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD
BACK OVER OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE LOW TRIPLE DIGITS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE PERMIAN BASIN, SE NM, AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, HIGHS IN THE 90S ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT AREAS. LOWS TOMORROW NIGHT MAINLY
COOL INTO THE 70S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS RIDGING
MOVES OVERHEAD FOR THE DAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY AND
INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. IF SATURDAY'S FORECAST HIGH OF
102F OCCURS, THIS WOULD BE A RECORD FOR THE DATE (CURRENTLY 101F SET
IN 1930). DAYTIME HIGHS WILL FALL FROM THE LOW 100S FOR MOST INTO
THE LOW TO MID 90S FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THIS TIME, BUT REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND TOP OUT BETWEEN 10-30%. OVERNIGHT LOWS
FOR MANY WILL GRADUALLY DIP INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S FOR MOST, BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
SEPTEMBER.
-STICKNEY
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GENERALLY
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MAINLY WEST OF
THE PECOS RIVER THIS AFTERNOON, BUT HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE OUT OF TAFS
FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 101 76 103 75 / 0 10 0 0
CARLSBAD 102 73 104 75 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 102 77 103 77 / 10 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 100 75 102 75 / 10 10 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 92 70 94 71 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 100 73 102 73 / 0 0 0 10
MARFA 92 65 94 64 / 30 0 40 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 100 77 102 76 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 100 77 102 77 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 102 76 104 77 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...55
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