970
FXUS64 KMAF 120523
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1223 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1223 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
- HOT TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH NEAR RECORD
HEAT POSSIBLE TODAY AND SATURDAY. BE SURE TO STAY HYDRATED AND
TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IF OUTDOORS!
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK, BUT BEGIN TO GRADUALLY COOL.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD. STORM CHANCES
INCREASE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
WV IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
MS VALLEY, INFRINGING UPON WHAT WOULD OTHERWISE BE A BROAD RIDGE
SPANNING THE SOUTHERN CONUS AND AREAS SOUTH. HOWEVER, SAID TROUGH
IS NOT MAKING A DENT LOCALLY IN TEMPERATURES, W/THIS AFTERNOON'S
HIGHS LOOKING TO TOP OUT ~ 12-14 F ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. THE KMAF 12Z
RAOB CAME IN W/A PWAT OF 1.63", WHICH IS AROUND THE 99TH PERCENTILE.
UNFORTUNATELY, OTHER THAN RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM YESTERDAY'S
CONVECTION, NO TRIGGERS ARE EVIDENT TO TAP INTO THIS WASTED
MOISTURE, OTHER THAN OROGRAPHIC ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON INVOF
THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS.
TONIGHT, A STRONG LLJ OF 40 KTS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP, AND THIS
WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL-MIXED. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH A
THIN VEIL OF HIGH CLOUD TO RETARD RADIATIONAL COOLING, RESULTING IN
PERHAPS THE WARMEST NIGHT THIS FORECAST AS MINIMUMS STALL AT ALMOST
15 F ABOVE NORMAL.
TONIGHT'S WARM LOWS WILL PROVIDE A HEAD START TO HIGHS ON SATURDAY,
WHEN THICKNESSES INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVER THIS AFTERNOON, YIELDING THE
WARMEST DAY THIS FORECAST, AND MAYBE EVEN FOR THE REST OF THE YEAR,
AS HIGHS TOP OUT AN AVERAGE OF OVER 15 F ABOVE NORMAL. W/THIS IN
MIND, THE UPPER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY LOOKS TO WARRANT A HEAT
ADVISORY. AREAS TO THE WEST ARE ON THE FENCE, AND WE'LL LET THE MID
SHIFT MAKE THE CALL ON THOSE. ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE INVOF THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS.
SATURDAY NIGHT, THE LLJ ISN'T FORECAST TO REDEVELOP QUITE AS STRONG
AS TONIGHT, AND LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR, BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER, THAN
TONIGHT.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. WARMER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MID SEPTEMBER STANDARDS CONTINUE
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO PERSIST IN THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S FOR MOST SPOTS.
THIS IS THANKS TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING STAYING OVER THE REGION. BY
TUESDAY, THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD DUE TO UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGHING WEST AND NORTH OF THE REGION. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES
BEGIN A DOWNWARD "COOLING" TREND BEGINNING TUESDAY LASTING THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES WHERE MOST
LOCATIONS SPAN IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. RAIN AND STORM CHANCES (20-
50%) INCREASE WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. DIURNAL HEATING, COMBINED WITH
SURFACE TROUGHING AND SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
WILL PROVIDE THE NECESSARY ASCENT EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
LAMBERSON
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
MAINLY SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED. ISOLATED
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BUT SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF EACH SITE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 104 76 100 74 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 104 74 102 73 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 104 77 100 75 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 103 75 98 73 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 94 71 92 69 / 0 0 10 10
HOBBS 103 73 99 71 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 94 64 93 63 / 20 0 10 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 102 76 98 74 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 103 77 98 75 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 105 76 101 74 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
BORDEN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-SCURRY.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...55
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