148
FXUS64 KMAF 121738
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1238 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1233 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
- HOT TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH NEAR RECORD
HEAT POSSIBLE TODAY. BE SURE TO STAY HYDRATED AND TAKE FREQUENT
BREAKS IF OUTDOORS!
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD. STORM CHANCES
INCREASE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO NEXT WEEK, WITH
ONLY VERY LOW CHANCES (10-15%) THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 134 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND INTO FAR WEST TEXAS. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO BUILD OVER OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON, YIELDING WIDESPREAD TRIPLE
DIGIT HEAT/POTENTIALLY RECORD-BREAKING HIGHS. FOR REFERENCE, THE
PREVIOUS RECORD HIGH OF 101F WAS SET IN 1930 AT MIDLAND
INTERNATIONAL AIR AND SPACE PORT (FORECAST HIGH IS 102F). THE
HOTTEST SPOTS ARE FORECAST TO BE ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS AND FAR
NORTHEASTERN PERMIAN BASIN. SINCE TEMPERATURES ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS
IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PERMIAN BASIN ARE FORECAST TO MAX OUT NEAR
105 DEGREES, A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON. ASIDE
FROM THE HEAT, SURFACE TROUGHING AND UPSLOPE FLOW MAY FOSTER THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY WEST OF THE PECOS
RIVER. THOUGH A STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE WESTERN
PERMIAN BASIN/SE NM. HOWEVER, SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE SHOULD
LIMIT STORM COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE.
HEIGHTS DECREASE SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO MOVE
EASTWARD. THIS RESULTS IN A DECREASE OF TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT COVERAGE
WHERE MANY SPOTS COOL 2-4 DEGREES. HOWEVER, MANY SPOTS ALONG THE
RIVER VALLEYS AND FAR NORTHEASTERN PERMIAN BASIN CAN EXPECT TO SEE
HIGHS REACH OR EXCEED THE CENTURY MARK. ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO
SURFACE TROUGHING AND UPSLOPE FLOW ONCE AGAIN.
GREENING
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 134 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IS PUSHED EASTWARD NEXT WEEK THANKS TO TROUGHING
TO THE NORTH AND WEST. AS A RESULT, WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID-SEPTEMBER, THEY WILL AT LEAST TICK DOWN
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. HIGHS IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 90S WILL BE
COMMONPLACE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES
JUST OVER 100 DEGREES IN/NEAR THE RIVER VALLEYS. BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, LOW-TO-MID 90S BECOME MORE PREVALENT ACROSS THE AREA.
MEANWHILE, SURFACE TROUGHING AND PULSES IN THE FLOW ALOFT YIELD
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES DAILY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY IN/AROUND THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE PECOS
RIVER. CHANCES FOR THESE LOCATIONS GENERALLY RANGE FROM 20-50%.
GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND, MODEL SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY BEGINS TO
INCREASE. THE NBM AT LEAST SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
COOL AS RIDGING ALOFT IS DAMPENED BY PASSING SHORTWAVES. HOWEVER,
THE EXTENT OF COOLING REMAINS UNCERTAIN. IT ALSO REMAINS TO BE SEEN
IF THESE PASSING SHORTWAVES WILL BRING BETTER RAIN CHANCES TO A
LARGER PORTION OF THE AREA, OR EVEN TRY TO PUSH A FRONT OUR
DIRECTION. DETAILS WILL BE REFINED AS MODEL CONSISTENCY INCREASES,
SO STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES!
SPRANG
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
VFR CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD. TS NOT INCLUDED WITH ISSUANCE,
BUT LOW (10-20%) CHANCES FOR CONVECTION EXIST MAINLY FOR HOB/INK
THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS STAY SOUTHERLY TO THE EAST OF THE
TX/NM BORDER AND SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY FURTHER TO THE WEST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 76 100 74 99 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 75 102 73 100 / 10 10 0 10
DRYDEN 77 99 76 99 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 75 98 73 98 / 10 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 71 92 69 90 / 10 10 10 10
HOBBS 74 99 71 97 / 10 0 0 0
MARFA 64 92 63 91 / 10 20 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 76 98 75 97 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 77 98 75 97 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 77 101 75 100 / 10 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BORDEN-HOWARD-
MITCHELL-SCURRY.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...93
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