301
FXUS64 KMAF 140524
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1224 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1223 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK, BUT A GRADUAL
COOLING TREND DEVELOPS ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD. STORM CHANCES
ALSO INCREASE AGAIN OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO THIS
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
CURRENT 500MB RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CENTER OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
NEAR THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THE CORE OF THE RIDGE
IS PROGGED TO RESIDE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE
EASTWARD SHIFT PROMOTES A GRADUAL COOLING TREND. TRIPLE DIGIT
HIGHS WILL SPAN ONLY THE NORTHEASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND AREAS
NEAR/ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON, COVERING SMALLER
PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, HIGHS IN THE
90S ARE EXPECTED AT MOST OTHER LOCATIONS BOTH DAYS. LOWS TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW NIGHT COOL INTO THE 60S WITHIN THE HIGHER TERRAIN,
AND 70S ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. MOST LOCATIONS STAY DRY
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
EASTERN NEW MEXICO TOWARD THE BIG BEND WILL FOSTER ISOLATED
(10-20% CHANCE) SHOWERS/STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER SE NM AND
AREAS WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER. A FEW CELLS HAVE ALREADY PERCOLATED
JUST NORTHWEST OF FORT DAVIS AS OF 2PM CDT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE AGAIN FORECAST OVER SE NM AND NEAR THE DAVIS'
MONDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE OVER SE NM MONDAY EVENING
(UP TO 30%) AS A DISTURBANCE ROLLS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
RIDGE. ANY STRONG STORMS THAT DEVELOP BOTH DAYS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. OTHERWISE, THE PROXIMITY OF THE
TROUGH AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LLJ AT NIGHT SHALL LEAD TO
BREEZY WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS OUR
REGION LIES ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER RIDGE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT WEST BACK TOWARD OUR AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, FLATTENING AS IT DOES SO. GIVEN RIDGING REMAINS OUR
PRIMARY WEATHER MAKER, AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL LARGELY TOP OUT IN THE
90S EACH AFTERNOON THIS WEEK. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT IS FORECAST OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND NEAR/ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS TUESDAY,
BECOMING RESTRICTED TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. MEANWHILE, TEMPERATURES IN AND NEAR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS LOOK
TO REACH THE 80S MOST AFTERNOONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHALL RANGE WITHIN
THE 60S TO 70S, WITH 60S EVENTUALLY BECOMING MORE PREVALENT BY THE
WEEKEND. SOMETIME OVER THE WEEKEND, LONG-RANGE MODELS SHOW A COLD
FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE PANHANDLE. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING DETAILS, SO STAY TUNED! WITH
ANY LUCK, WE MAY FINALLY BE ABLE TO COOL DOWN TO MORE SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE, RAIN CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST MOST
AFTERNOONS, MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. THESE COME
COURTESY OF UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH LIFT FROM DISTURBANCES
DRIFTING ALONG THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHEASTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME GUSTY AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING. GUSTS BETWEEN
20-25 KTS WILL BE COMMONPLACE, WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS THROUGH
THE DAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
MOST WILL REMAIN WEST OF TAF SITES, BUT A COUPLE MAY DEVELOP NEAR
CNM (A PROB30 MAY BE NECESSARY WITH THE NEXT TAF UPDATE).
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 99 75 100 74 / 0 0 0 10
CARLSBAD 100 73 100 70 / 10 20 30 60
DRYDEN 99 76 99 75 / 0 0 10 10
FORT STOCKTON 98 73 98 72 / 10 0 20 20
GUADALUPE PASS 90 69 89 67 / 10 20 40 70
HOBBS 97 72 98 70 / 0 10 20 50
MARFA 90 63 90 62 / 10 0 30 50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 97 74 98 74 / 0 0 10 20
ODESSA 97 75 98 74 / 0 0 10 20
WINK 100 75 100 74 / 0 0 20 40
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...13
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