569
FXUS64 KMAF 141122
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
622 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 621 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK, BUT A GRADUAL
COOLING TREND DEVELOPS ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD. STORM CHANCES
ALSO INCREASE AGAIN OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO THIS
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 135 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MESOSCALE ANALYSIS DEPICT AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS TOWARDS THE ARK-LA-TEX
REGION. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH THE RIDGE TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, AND AS A RESULT
HEIGHTS WILL TICK DOWN ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
THIS CAUSES TEMPERATURES TO DECREASE A DEGREE OR TWO RELATIVE TO
YESTERDAY. NEVERTHELESS, HIGHS STILL TOP OUT IN THE MID-TO-UPPER
90S, WITH 100S MAINLY CONFINED TO THE RIVER VALLEYS. MEANWHILE, A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXTEND ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS
FEATURE WILL FOSTER BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION (GUSTS
BETWEEN 20-30 MPH WILL BE COMMONPLACE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS). THE SURFACE TROUGH, ALONG WITH
PULSES ROUNDING THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE, WILL ALSO YIELD
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, THE BEST CHANCES
(20-30%) WILL BE FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND LOCATIONS
IN/NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER. STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP MAY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
A LOW-LEVEL JET HELPS KEEP WINDS BREEZY OVERNIGHT, SO LOWS TUESDAY
MORNING REMAIN IN THE LOW-TO-MID 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. HIGHS TICK
UP A DEGREE OR TWO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS HEIGHTS INCREASE SLIGHTLY
OVER OUR AREA (TEMPERATURES STILL REMAIN IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 90S FOR
MOST). RAIN CHANCES BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD TUESDAY, BUT THE
BEST CHANCES (30-60%) WILL STILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON GOING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THAT BEING
SAID, A FEW ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO WESTERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN
BASIN. SIMILAR TO MONDAY, STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERNS.
SPRANG
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
AS STATED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION, CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY TO THE ARK-LA-TEX REGION.
MEANWHILE, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH IS LOCATED
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MEDIUM TO LONG-RANGE MODELS SHOW THE
RIDGE SHIFTING A LITTLE FARTHER EAST EACH DAY AS THE UPPER-LOW
EJECTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH
EXPECTATIONS AS HEIGHT RISES ARE OBSERVED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
AND HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH (IN ADDITION TO A STRONG
WESTERLY 50-55 KT JET AT ITS BASE). DESPITE THE EASTWARD
DISPLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE, OUR FORECAST AREA REMAINS ON ITS FAR
WESTERN FRINGES. THIS ALLOWS FOR CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND A GRADUAL COOL-DOWN BY A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY THIS WEEK.
INCREASING MOISTURE IN ADDITION TO UPSLOPE FLOW AND DISTURBANCES
ROUNDING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE YIELDS DAILY CHANCES
(GENERALLY 20-50%, UP TO 60%) OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
LONG-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS TRYING TO SIGNAL A BREAK IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN BY NEXT WEEKEND, BRINGING A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INTO
OUR REGION. THIS WOULD MEAN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLY MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER, THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT
IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE TROUGH DIGS AND THE PLACEMENT OF A COLD FRONT.
ENSEMBLE BOX AND WHISKER PLOTS DEPICT THIS WITH LARGE SPREAD IN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FIELDS, PROVIDING US WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFIC DETAILS AT THIS TIME.
GREENING
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME
GUSTY THIS MORNING. GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 KTS WILL BE COMMONPLACE AT
MOST SITES, WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS THROUGH THE DAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH THEY WILL
GENERALLY STAY WEST OF TERMINALS, A PROB30 FOR -TSRA HAS BEEN
INCLUDED AT CNM, WHERE CONFIDENCE IN STORMS DEVELOPING NEARBY IS
RELATIVELY HIGHER.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 99 75 100 74 / 0 0 0 10
CARLSBAD 100 73 100 70 / 20 20 40 70
DRYDEN 98 76 99 75 / 0 0 0 10
FORT STOCKTON 97 73 98 72 / 10 0 20 20
GUADALUPE PASS 89 69 88 67 / 20 20 50 60
HOBBS 96 71 98 70 / 0 20 30 60
MARFA 90 64 90 62 / 20 20 50 50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 97 74 98 74 / 0 0 0 10
ODESSA 96 75 98 75 / 0 0 0 10
WINK 99 75 100 74 / 0 10 20 30
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...13
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