978
FXUS64 KMAF 150528
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1228 AM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1226 AM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
- DESPITE A GRADUAL COOLING TREND, TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK. A MORE NOTABLE COOL DOWN IS POSSIBLE
THIS WEEKEND.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN EACH AFTERNOON. STORM CHANCES ALSO INCREASE OVER
PORTIONS OF SE NM THIS WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
FOR THOSE WHO PREFER COOLER WEATHER, THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS FINALLY
BEGINNING TO CHANGE, AS THE SUMMERTIME RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN. WV
IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER, EJECTING NORTHEAST, AS ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE CANADIAN
COAST, REINFORCING THE WEST COAST TROUGH. THIS HAS SHUNTED THE
UPPER RIDGE EAST, WHERE IT IS CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER THE INTERSECTION
OF AL/MS/TN, LEAVING PROGRESSIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER WEST
TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. AS A RESULT OF THE STRENGTHENING
WEST COAST TROUGH, LEESIDE TROUGHING IS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING ON THE
FRONT RANGE, INCREASING RETURN FLOW LOCALLY. THE NET EFFECT OF ALL
OF THIS WILL BE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. AS
SUCH, TODAY AND TOMORROW SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAYS THIS FORECAST,
W/HIGHS TOPPING OUT UPPER 90S OR HIGHER MOST LOCATIONS, AROUND 10-12
F ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. TO THE NORTHWEST, SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH
THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE
CONVECTIVE CHANCES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A STRONG, 40
KT LLJ DEVELOPS. SUSTAINED MIXING AND A FEW HIGH CLOUDS (ESPECIALLY
WEST) WILL RETARD RADIATIONAL COOLING, YIELDING PERHAPS THE WARMEST
NIGHT THIS FORECAST AS MINIMUMS PERSIST ~ 12-14 F ABOVE NORMAL.
TUESDAY, THE WEST COAST TROUGH CONTINUES SHIFTING THE UPPER RIDGE
EAST, DECREASING THICKNESSES SLIGHTLY, RESULTING IN HIGHS VERY
SIMILAR TO TODAY'S, AND MAYBE A SKOSH COOLER, IF BARELY. W/THE
RIDGE DISPLACED FARTHER EAST, MORE PERTURBATIONS CAN RIDE UP THE WEST
SIDE OF THE RIDGE DEEPER EAST INTO THE CWA, INCREASING CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL EAST OF THE PECOS.
THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LLJ IS FORECAST
TO BE CONSIDERABLY WEAKER, ALLOWING OVERNIGHT LOWS TO COOL BY A
DEGREE OR SO OVER TONIGHT'S TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
MIDWEEK, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHALL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS, CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST. OUR REGION
LOOKS TO LIE ALONG ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY.THE CORE OF THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO SHIFT WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER, IT
BECOMES COMPRESSED BY AN UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
AN INVERTED TROUGH ROUNDING ITS SOUTHERN EDGE IN THE GULF. THESE
WORK TOGETHER TO GRADUALLY ERODE THE RIDGE, CONTINUING LOWER HEIGHTS
AND RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE 90S AT MOST LOCATIONS. TRIPLE
DIGIT HEAT BECOMES RESTRICTED TO ISOLATED SPOTS ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE, WHILE HIGHS IN THE 80S WILL BE COMMON WITHIN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND ADJACENT AREAS. UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH PASSING
DISTURBANCES PROMOTE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR REGION THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. THE BEST ODDS FOR RAINFALL WILL TEND TO FAVOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.
THIS WEEKEND, THE POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD,
ACCOMPANIED BY EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES. THESE COME COURTESY OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST, PROVIDING A
BETTER SOURCE OF LIFT AND MOISTURE, AND, EVENTUALLY, A COLD FRONT.
ALTHOUGH, IT'S IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING DETAILS AND SPECIFIC IMPACTS WITH THIS TROUGH. FOR NOW,
HIGHS IN THE 80S GRADUALLY ENVELOP THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE,
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE 60S/70S, WITH 60S
BEING MORE PREVALENT TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. AS PER THE
LATEST DATA, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AREAWIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WE'LL HAVE TO SEE HOW THE STORY
UNFOLDS GOING FORWARD, SO STAY POSTED!
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY
REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF HOB AND CNM FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING AS THEY GRADUALLY DIMINISH. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PROB30S AT CNM, HOB, FST, AND PEQ FOR -TSRA MAY BE NECESSARY BY THE
NEXT TAF UPDATE IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. SOUTHEASTERLY
TO SOUTHERLY WINDS REMAIN BREEZY FOR MOST SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD
(GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT SUSTAINED RANGE), WITH GENERALLY
LIGHTER WINDS AT CNM AND PEQ.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 100 74 99 73 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 100 70 95 68 / 20 50 30 30
DRYDEN 99 75 97 74 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 98 72 95 71 / 20 10 10 0
GUADALUPE PASS 89 67 85 65 / 20 60 40 40
HOBBS 98 70 94 68 / 20 50 10 10
MARFA 91 62 89 61 / 50 30 20 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 98 74 97 72 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 98 74 96 73 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 100 73 97 72 / 10 10 10 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...13
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