695
FXUS64 KMAF 150635
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
135 AM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 135 AM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
- DESPITE A GRADUAL COOLING TREND, TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK. A MORE NOTABLE COOL DOWN IS POSSIBLE
THIS WEEKEND IN ADDITION TO MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN EACH AFTERNOON. STORM CHANCES ALSO INCREASE OVER
PORTIONS OF SE NM THIS WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 135 AM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
CURRENT MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE, A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE HAS ALLOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY WANE AND/OR MOVE BEYOND OUR
AREA AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. LATER TODAY, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL DEVELOP THANKS TO SURFACE TROUGHING AND PULSES IN THE
FLOW ALOFT. COVERAGE WILL BE A BIT BETTER THAN YESTERDAY'S,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. CHANCES IN
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND IN/NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH AND WEST
OF THE PECOS RIVER RANGE BETWEEN 30-60%. CHANCES TEND TO DROP
SOMEWHAT SHARPLY FARTHER EAST, BUT A FEW ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN. SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON TOP OUT IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 90S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS AGAIN, WITH TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE 100 DEGREES
MAINLY IN AND NEAR THE RIVER VALLEYS.
SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING, SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
BEFORE GRADUALLY WANING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO SHIFT A BIT FARTHER TO
THE WEST, SUCH THAT THE BEST CHANCES (20-50%) WILL BE FOUND FROM
ROUGHLY THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS NORTH TOWARDS THE GUADALUPES AND EDDY
COUNTY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY TICK DOWN RELATIVE TO TUESDAY'S, BUT
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 90S. LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING
ONCE AGAIN ONLY FALL INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 70S FOR MOST. NEVERTHELESS,
WE ARE STILL MONITORING A COOLING TREND LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEK. SEE THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS ON THAT AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES.
SPRANG
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 AM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS TWO FORECAST PACKAGES. THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS DISPLACED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS, WITH OUR AREA UNDER ITS WESTERN FRINGES. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DIG SOUTH ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST BEFORE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. AS
IT DOES SO, THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN FARTHER EAST.
THIS SHALL INDUCE A GRADUAL COOLING TREND OF ABOUT A DEGREE EACH DAY
THIS WEEK. INCREASED MOISTURE IN ADDITION TO UPSLOPE FLOW AND MINOR
PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW YIELDS DAILY SHOWER/STORM CHANCES (10-40%)
THIS WEEK ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN AND SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO.
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, LONG-RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
DEPICTS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. IF THIS WERE TO
VERIFY, LOWER HEIGHTS WOULD YIELD COOLER TEMPERATURES AND AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER/STORM CHANCES (NBM CURRENTLY SHOWS 20-60%
PROBABILITIES) FARTHER EAST. HOWEVER, THERE CONTINUES TO BE LARGE
SPREAD AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FIELDS. THIS IS DUE
TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON PLACEMENT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE POSITIONING OF THESE FEATURES DETERMINE
WHETHER OUR AREA EXPERIENCES WARMER/DRIER OR COOLER/WETTER
CONDITIONS. AN OUTCOME THAT MAINTAINS HIGH UNCERTAINTY AND WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS, ADJUSTING THE FORECAST AS NEW DATA
WARRANTS IT.
GREENING
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY
REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF HOB AND CNM FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING AS THEY GRADUALLY DIMINISH. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PROB30S AT CNM, HOB, FST, AND PEQ FOR -TSRA MAY BE NECESSARY BY THE
NEXT TAF UPDATE IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. SOUTHEASTERLY
TO SOUTHERLY WINDS REMAIN BREEZY FOR MOST SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD
(GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT SUSTAINED RANGE), WITH GENERALLY
LIGHTER WINDS AT CNM AND PEQ.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 100 74 99 73 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 100 70 95 68 / 20 50 30 30
DRYDEN 99 75 97 74 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 98 72 95 71 / 20 10 10 0
GUADALUPE PASS 89 67 85 65 / 20 60 40 40
HOBBS 98 70 94 68 / 20 50 10 10
MARFA 91 62 89 61 / 50 30 20 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 98 74 97 72 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 98 74 96 73 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 100 73 97 72 / 10 10 10 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...13
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