234
FXUS64 KMAF 030410
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1110 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1108 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
- A COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT CLOUDY SKIES, COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND
A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO OUR AREA AS WE END
THE WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES SLOWLY INCREASE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, RISING
BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES TEND
TO DECREASE, WITH 10-20% CHANCES BEING CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
FALL IS IN THE AIR! TEMPERATURES LOOK TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON, UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY SKIES. HOWEVER, SHOULD CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL, HIGHS COULD END
UP BEING COOLER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST. THE COOLER WEATHER COMES
COURTESY OF A COLD FRONT THAT SWEPT THROUGH EARLIER. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW THAT USHERED IN THE FRONT LINGERS NEAR OUR REGION THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW, COMBINED WITH
MOISTURE, ALLOWS FOR CONTINUED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING AND
INTO TONIGHT RANGE FROM 10-50% ALMOST AREAWIDE. FOR THE PERMIAN
BASIN AND MOST OF SE NM, CHANCES WILL BE BETWEEN 10-30%. MEANWHILE,
AREAS WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER HAVE 30-50% RAIN CHANCES, WITH THE
BEST ODDS FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE DAVIS'.
TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT, RAIN CHANCES SHIFT TOWARD THE EASTERN
AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. TOMORROW MORNING, ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
PERMIAN BASIN, THE TRANS PECOS, AND THE BIG BEND. RAIN CHANCES
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY, THEN RETURN TO THE BIG BEND AND LOWER
TRANS PECOS TOMORROW NIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO THE
40S IN THE MOUNTAINS, 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS, AND 60S MAINLY ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE. HIGHS TOMORROW ARE FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE 60S
WITHIN THE HIGHER TERRAIN, 70S ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
BY SUNDAY, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
DUE TO OUR RELATIVE PROXIMITY TO THIS RIDGE, TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
WARM AGAIN ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, DESPITE
PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S
WILL BE COMMONPLACE, THOUGH THESE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL A COUPLE OF
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. GENERALLY LOW RAIN CHANCES (10-40%) ARE
MAINTAINED FOR THE TRANS-PECOS AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
PERMIAN BASIN. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO, MONDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO
SUNDAY, WITH LOW POPS (10-25%) BECOMING MORE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND PARTS OF THE UPPER TRANS-PECOS. SURFACE WINDS BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT WHICH, ALONG WITH THE NEARBY RIDGE,
WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO WARM AGAIN THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. MOST LOCATIONS TOP OUT IN THE LOW-TO-MID 80S TUESDAY, AND
BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID-
TO-UPPER 80S (WHICH WOULD BE ABOUT 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL). WHILE
LOW POPS (10-20%) ARE MAINTAINED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF THE
PECOS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK (THANKS TO UPSLOPE FLOW), ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE WILL TEND TO DECREASE DAILY. AS A RESULT, BY THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK RAIN CHANCES FALL BELOW 10% AREAWIDE.
SPRANG
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE ALL TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR
SO, BEFORE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS VEER TO EAST, SCATTERING OUT SKIES
TO VFR BY 21Z SATURDAY. _SHRA IS POSSIBLE NEXT 12 HOURS, BUT
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW/RANDOM FOR A MENTION ATTM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 58 78 60 82 / 30 20 10 10
CARLSBAD 56 74 56 79 / 30 10 0 0
DRYDEN 62 77 63 80 / 60 60 20 20
FORT STOCKTON 58 74 59 78 / 60 40 10 20
GUADALUPE PASS 51 66 54 70 / 20 10 0 0
HOBBS 54 74 56 78 / 20 10 0 10
MARFA 51 70 52 71 / 20 20 10 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 59 77 61 81 / 20 20 0 10
ODESSA 60 77 62 81 / 20 10 0 10
WINK 59 78 60 83 / 20 10 0 10
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...99
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