210
FXUS64 KMAF 031723
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1223 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1222 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
- A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BEGINS TODAY, AND CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
- RAIN CHANCES TAPER OFF TO THE SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT, AND WILL
BE SLIM-TO-NONE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER
UTAH/ARIZONA, AND ANOTHER CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST STATES,
RESULTING IN A SHEAR ZONE OVER WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
THIS, AS WELL AS A COLD FRONT, BRRRROUGHT THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES
YET OF THE FALL TO THE AREA YESTERDAY, AS WELL AS SOME BENEFICIAL
WETTING RAINS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE WESTERN RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN BUILDING EAST, SHUNTING THE SHEAR ZONE TO THE ENE
AS WELL. AS THE REMNANTS OF THE COLD FRONT CONTINUE SAGGING SOUTH,
SO TOO WILL CONVECTIVE CHANCES, MAINLY -SHRA. SKIES SHOULD BEGIN
SCATTERING OUT NW-SE, SIGNALING THE BEGINNING OF A GRADUAL WARMUP
WHICH WILL CONTINUE BEYOND THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THEREFORE TODAY,
LIKE YESTERDAY, WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY THIS FORECAST, ALTHOUGH
TODAY'S HIGHS WILL BE ONLY ~ 5-7 F BELOW CLIMATOLOGY, WHICH WILL
STILL MEAN HIGHS IN THE 70S MOST LOCATIONS. DESPITE THE DWINDLING
RAIN CHANCES TODAY, TODAY WILL BE THE WETTEST DAY OF THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AS WELL.
TONIGHT, SHOWERS KEEP TAPERING OFF TO THE SOUTH, AND SKIES BEGIN TO
SCATTER OUT. THIS, ALONG W/THE ABSENCE OF A LLJ, WILL ALLOW
OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS TO COOL TO AN AVERAGE OF 5 F ABOVE NORMAL,
PUTTING MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 50S.
SUNDAY, THE WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS EAST TO THE FOUR CORNERS, SHOVING
THE SHEAR ZONE INTO EAST TEXAS. AS A RESULT, INCREASING THICKNESSES
AS THE RIDGE MOVES IN WILL ADD AROUND 5 F TO TODAY'S HIGHS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-10.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS RATHER PEDESTRIAN, AS MOST OF THE
NOTEWORTHY CHANGES ARE INTO THE SHORT TERM. BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON, THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP EVEN FARTHER EAST,
AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUING INCREASE IN
THICKNESSES/TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WHEN HIGHS WILL TOP OUT
SOME ~ 7-9 F ABOVE NORMAL. DESPITE THIS, FOR THOSE WHO PREFER
COOLER WEATHER, HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 80S MOST LOCATIONS. 90S
ARE BECOMING MORE AND MORE ELUSIVE BY THE DAY. IN MOSTLY DRY,
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, RAIN CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED LOOK SLIM-TO-
NONE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
MVFR CIGS HAVE GRADUALLY BEGUN TO CLEAR OUT, AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO
SO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. BY 19-20Z, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS. NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. BY SUNDAY MORNING, MVFR CEILINGS SNEAK BACK INTO
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW GUIDANCE INDICATES
THEY WILL REMAIN EAST OF ANY TERMINALS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 78 59 81 59 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 75 56 79 59 / 10 0 0 0
DRYDEN 77 62 79 62 / 40 10 10 10
FORT STOCKTON 74 57 78 58 / 20 10 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 67 53 69 56 / 10 0 0 0
HOBBS 74 55 78 55 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 71 51 71 52 / 10 10 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 77 60 80 60 / 10 0 0 0
ODESSA 77 61 80 61 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 77 60 82 61 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...13
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