389
FXUS64 KMAF 032322
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
622 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 622 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY. LOW CHANCES OF
LIGHT RAIN (GENERALLY 10-30%) ARE MAINTAINED MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH
OF THE PECOS RIVER THIS WEEKEND.
- RAIN CHANCES LOOK LOW TO NONE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, ACCOMPANIED
BY A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
CURRENT MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD
TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, A REMNANT
UPPER-LEVEL LOW/SHEAR ZONE IS EVIDENT OVER WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO. LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS PUSHED SOUTHWARD INTO THE BIG BEND
AND LOWER TRANS-PECOS THIS MORNING. THIS RAIN IS STILL ONGOING, BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO WANE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. REMNANT
CLOUD COVER AND CONTINUED NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS KEEP
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS (60S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN).
LOWS TONIGHT DROP INTO THE 50S AND LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO EDGE EASTWARD TOMORROW, HIGHS INCREASE A BIT
ACROSS THE REGION. MOST LOCATIONS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW
80S. NEVERTHELESS, THESE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS, THANKS IN PART TO PERSISTENT
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS. ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN REMAINS POSSIBLE
MAINLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE PECOS RIVER (10-20% CHANCES). MONDAY
MORNING'S LOWS END UP SIMILAR TO SUNDAY MORNING'S, ALBEIT A DEGREE
OR TWO WARMER. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.
SPRANG
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
A WARMING TREND CONTINUES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS MID LEVEL
RIDGING LIES OFF TO OUR WEST. MONDAY, THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BE
CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO SUNDAY'S, TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. THE
RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD BY MIDWEEK, INCREASING HEIGHTS OVER OUR AREA.
IN RESPONSE, HIGHS IN THE 80S BECOME MORE COMMONPLACE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO FALL
MAINLY INTO THE 50S MONDAY NIGHT, THEN UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. RAIN CHANCES LOOK LOW TO NONE THROUGH THE
WEEK, GIVEN DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH CIGS
GENERALLY AROUND 4-8 KFT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
THIS EVENING AT MOST SITES BEFORE BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY BY 15-16Z SUNDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
MVFR CIGS REACHING OUR EASTERNMOST ZONES SUNDAY MORNING, BUT FOR NOW
REMAIN EAST OF ALL TERMINALS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 60 81 61 82 / 0 0 0 10
CARLSBAD 57 80 58 78 / 0 10 10 10
DRYDEN 63 80 64 80 / 10 20 10 20
FORT STOCKTON 57 78 60 78 / 10 20 10 20
GUADALUPE PASS 55 70 56 68 / 0 10 10 10
HOBBS 56 77 56 77 / 0 0 0 10
MARFA 52 72 54 73 / 0 20 10 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 60 79 61 79 / 0 0 0 10
ODESSA 61 79 61 79 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 59 82 60 81 / 0 10 10 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...55
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