942
FXUS64 KMAF 040447
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1147 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1143 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY. LOW CHANCES OF
LIGHT RAIN (GENERALLY 10-30%) ARE MAINTAINED MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH
OF THE PECOS RIVER THIS WEEKEND.
- RAIN CHANCES LOOK LOW TO NONE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, ACCOMPANIED
BY A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
CURRENT MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD
TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, A REMNANT
UPPER-LEVEL LOW/SHEAR ZONE IS EVIDENT OVER WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO. LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS PUSHED SOUTHWARD INTO THE BIG BEND
AND LOWER TRANS-PECOS THIS MORNING. THIS RAIN IS STILL ONGOING, BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO WANE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. REMNANT
CLOUD COVER AND CONTINUED NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS KEEP
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS (60S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN).
LOWS TONIGHT DROP INTO THE 50S AND LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO EDGE EASTWARD TOMORROW, HIGHS INCREASE A BIT
ACROSS THE REGION. MOST LOCATIONS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW
80S. NEVERTHELESS, THESE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS, THANKS IN PART TO PERSISTENT
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS. ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN REMAINS POSSIBLE
MAINLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE PECOS RIVER (10-20% CHANCES). MONDAY
MORNING'S LOWS END UP SIMILAR TO SUNDAY MORNING'S, ALBEIT A DEGREE
OR TWO WARMER. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.
SPRANG
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
A WARMING TREND CONTINUES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS MID LEVEL
RIDGING LIES OFF TO OUR WEST. MONDAY, THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BE
CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO SUNDAY'S, TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. THE
RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD BY MIDWEEK, INCREASING HEIGHTS OVER OUR AREA.
IN RESPONSE, HIGHS IN THE 80S BECOME MORE COMMONPLACE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO FALL
MAINLY INTO THE 50S MONDAY NIGHT, THEN UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. RAIN CHANCES LOOK LOW TO NONE THROUGH THE
WEEK, GIVEN DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS IN GENERALLY LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS, SATELLITE
IMAGERY, AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PLENTY OF LOW/MID CLOUDS
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BUT THESE SHOULD REMAIN VFR AND KEEP ANY
LOWER CIGS FROM DEVELOPING. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT TOO LOW FOR
A MENTION ATTM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 77 60 81 61 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 74 57 80 58 / 0 0 10 10
DRYDEN 77 63 80 64 / 50 10 20 10
FORT STOCKTON 73 57 78 60 / 20 10 20 10
GUADALUPE PASS 67 55 70 56 / 0 0 10 10
HOBBS 73 56 77 56 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 70 52 72 54 / 10 0 20 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 76 60 79 61 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 76 61 79 61 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 77 59 82 60 / 0 0 10 10
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...99
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