621
FXUS64 KMAF 041723
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1223 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1221 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
- A WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY, AFTER
WHICH TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY GOING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
- RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT CHANCES REMAIN MINIMAL. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 3456
FOR THOSE WHO PREFER COOL, WETTER WEATHER, THEY'RE STILL IN LUCK IN
THE SHORT TERM, AS LONG AS NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW PERSISTS. WV
IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THE WESTERN UPPER RIDGE STILL BISECTING
UTAH/ARIZONA, BUT DEVELOPING EAST TO THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS IS
SLOWLY NUDGING THE UPPER TROUGH/SHEAR ZONE THAT HAS RESIDED OVER
WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO FOR THE PAST WEEK TO THE
NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE, AT THE SURFACE, NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW
PERSISTS, AND WILL YIELD AT LEAST ONE MORE DAY OR TWO OF COOL
TEMPERATURES. NBM HAS BEEN RUNNING A LITTLE WARM THE PAST FEW DAYS,
AND MODEL CERTAINTY SUGGESTS IT MAY STILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARM
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, ESPECIALLY IF ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER
PERSISTS. THAT SAID, TODAY'S HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 5 F BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY, KEEPING MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 70S, KEEPING TODAY ONCE
AGAIN THE COOLEST DAY THIS FORECAST. THIS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE PROMOTING MINIMAL UPSLOPE CONVECTIVE CHANCES, MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF SHOWERS.
TONIGHT, A MINIMAL CHANCE OF UPSLOPE SHOWERS PERSISTS. ABSENT A
NOCTURNAL LLJ, OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS WILL REMAIN COOL, COMING IN ~ 6-8
F ABOVE NORMAL, PUTTING MOST LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.
MONDAY, THE WESTERN RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE SQUARELY OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS, WITH THE UPPER TROUGH/SHEAR ZONE SHOVED INTO EAST TEXAS.
DESPITE INCREASING THICKNESSES, NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WILL PERSIST
INTO LATE AFTERNOON, SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY'S,
ONLY PERHAPS A DEGREE WARMER AT BEST. UPSLOPE SHOWERS REMAIN
POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 3456
MONDAY NIGHT, SURFACE WINDS FINALLY VEER BACK TO RETURN FLOW,
ALLOWING MORE RESPECTABLE TEMPERATURES TO COME INTO THE PICTURE. A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK, WHEN
HIGHS TOP OUT ~ 5-7 F ABOVE NORMAL. AT ABOUT THIS TIME, LONG-RANGE
MODELS BEGIN DEVELOPING AN UPPER TROUGH DIRECTLY OVER WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, DECREASING THICKNESSES AND LOWERING HIGHS BY
UP TO 3-4 F THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY,
MODELS DEVELOP CONVECTION OVER CHIHUAHUA, BRINGING IT ACROSS THE
RIVER AND FARTHER NORTH EACH DAY. SOMETHING TO WATCH WILL BE DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW SATURATING GFS SOUNDINGS AT KMAF TO 300 MB BY 18Z
FRIDAY, YIELDING PWATS OF ALMOST 1.5", OR AROUND THE 99TH PERCENTILE
ACCORDING TO CLIMATOLOGY. A BOUNDARY FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO TAP INTO
THIS WOULD MAKE FOR A NICE WEEKEND, AND BEARS WATCHING. STAY TUNED.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING (EXCEPT FOR MVFR
CIGS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED AT FST, THOUGH THESE ARE EXPECTED TO BE
TEMPORARY). NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS PERSIST AT ALL
TERMINALS, WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT GUSTS (MAINLY AT MAF). ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED -RA/-SHRA DEVELOPS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, BUT DID NOT
MENTION IN THE TAFS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE FOR ANY OF THE TERMINALS.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE MVFR CIGS WILL FILTER BACK INTO THE
AREA MONDAY MORNING, WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT AT
MAF AND FST. MVFR CIGS MAY MAKE IT AS FAR WEST AS HOB, INK, AND PEQ,
BUT CONFIDENCE FOR THESE SITES WAS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 79 61 82 60 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 77 59 77 57 / 20 10 10 0
DRYDEN 77 64 78 62 / 20 30 20 0
FORT STOCKTON 77 61 77 60 / 10 20 10 0
GUADALUPE PASS 67 57 68 57 / 10 20 10 0
HOBBS 75 56 76 56 / 10 10 10 0
MARFA 69 53 72 52 / 10 20 10 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 77 61 79 61 / 0 10 10 0
ODESSA 77 62 78 61 / 0 0 10 0
WINK 80 61 80 61 / 10 10 10 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...13
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