497
FXUS64 KMAF 041845
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
145 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 145 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY. LOW CHANCES OF
RAIN (GENERALLY 10-30%, UP TO 40%) ARE MAINTAINED MAINLY
ALONG/SOUTH OF THE PECOS RIVER THROUGH MONDAY AS WELL.
- A WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY, AFTER
WHICH TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY GOING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS OVER THE
REGION.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS, SLOWLY PUSHING A
REMNANT UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVERHEAD EASTWARD AND INCREASING
THICKNESSES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER, THIS WARMING IS
TEMPERED BY PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS AT THE
SURFACE. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S
ACROSS THE AREA. TOMORROW, MOST LOCATIONS TOP OUT A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER. NEVERTHELESS, THESE HIGHS REMAIN ABOUT 2-5 DEGREES OR SO
BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOW 60S TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN
(10-30%) DEVELOP AGAIN FOR MAINLY THE TRANS-PECOS AND IN/AROUND
THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS EVENING (10-15% CHANCES OF SHOWERS FOR
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO). RAIN CHANCES ARE MAINTAINED MONDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE
TRANS- PECOS AND AROUND THE HIGHER TERRAIN (20-40%), BUT ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAY ALSO DEVELOP FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND
THE PERMIAN BASIN (10-20%). BY MONDAY NIGHT, WINDS BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE SLOWLY WARMING
THROUGH MIDWEEK. MORE ON THAT IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW.
SPRANG
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
AFTERNOON HIGHS LOOK TO GENERALLY WARM INTO THE 80S EACH AFTERNOON
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, WITH 70S FORECAST FOR AREAS IN AND NEAR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL TO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S EACH
NIGHT. TUESDAY, MID LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS OUR PRIMARY WEATHER MAKER.
LOW (10-30%) RAIN CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES, CURRENT
MODELS HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMING OUT OF
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO WEDNESDAY, HEADED EAST. RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE
FIRST TO OUR SOUTHWESTERNMOST COUNTIES WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, 10-50% CHANCES OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS SPREAD EAST TO ENCOMPASS MOST AREAS WEST OF THE
PECOS RIVER. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
OUR AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE THIS
SHORTWAVE BECOMING AN UPPER LOW SOMEWHERE NEAR OUR AREA THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE, A SURFACE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO EXTEND OVER OUR REGION,
AIDING TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES ALMOST AREAWIDE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THERE CURRENTLY REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACTLY
WHERE THIS LOW WILL DEVELOP, ITS MOTION, AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE
WILL BE AVAILABLE ONCE IT MATERIALIZES. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW
THIS SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE GOING FORWARD. AT THE VERY LEAST, LOWER
HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF OF
TEMPERATURES DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING (EXCEPT FOR MVFR
CIGS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED AT FST, THOUGH THESE ARE EXPECTED TO BE
TEMPORARY). NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS PERSIST AT ALL
TERMINALS, WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT GUSTS (MAINLY AT MAF). ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED -RA/-SHRA DEVELOPS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, BUT DID NOT
MENTION IN THE TAFS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE FOR ANY OF THE TERMINALS.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE MVFR CIGS WILL FILTER BACK INTO THE
AREA MONDAY MORNING, WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT AT
MAF AND FST. MVFR CIGS MAY MAKE IT AS FAR WEST AS HOB, INK, AND PEQ,
BUT CONFIDENCE FOR THESE SITES WAS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 61 82 60 87 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 59 77 57 84 / 10 10 0 0
DRYDEN 64 78 62 81 / 30 20 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 61 77 60 85 / 20 10 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 57 68 57 74 / 20 10 0 0
HOBBS 56 76 56 83 / 10 10 0 0
MARFA 53 72 52 78 / 20 10 0 30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 61 79 61 85 / 10 10 0 0
ODESSA 62 78 61 85 / 0 10 0 0
WINK 61 80 61 87 / 10 10 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...13
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