945
FXUS64 KMAF 051723
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1223 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1222 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
- A WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY, AFTER
WHICH TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
BEFORE REBOUNDING SATURDAY.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. TUESDAY
LOOKS DRY, BEFORE CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
WV IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS THAT HAS RESIDED OVER
WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO SINCE LAST WEEK HAS NOW MOVED
INTO CENTRAL TEXAS, COURTESY OF AN UPPER RIDGE JUST WEST OF THE FOUR
CORNERS. AT THE SURFACE, NORTHEASTERLY WINDS STILL PREVAIL, AND
THIS UPSLOPE FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH THE WESTERN INFLUENCES OF THE
TROUGH FOR ONE MORE CHANCE OF CONVECTION, MAINLY THIS MORNING,
BEFORE THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ARKLATEX AND SURFACE WINDS BEGIN
VEERING BACK TO RETURN FLOW. HOWEVER, NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST
LONG ENOUGH TODAY TO PROVIDE ONE MORE ROUND OF UNSEASONABLY COOL
HIGHS. ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL AVERAGE A DEGREE OR SO BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY, THEY'LL BE A DEGREE OR SO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. AS
HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS, TODAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY
THIS FORECAST, AS THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES.
TONIGHT, AS MENTIONED ABOVE, SURFACE WINDS WILL FINALLY VEER BACK TO
RETURN FLOW, COMBINING W/A FEW MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO KEEP OVERNIGHT
MINIMUMS WARMER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. LOWS SHOULD REMAIN
AT LEAST ~ 6-8 F ABOVE NORMAL, ALTHOUGH THIS WILL STILL BE A COOL
UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S MOST LOCATIONS.
TUESDAY, THE WESTERN RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE SOCAL/BAJA
COAST SOUTHEAST INTO MEXICO, RESULTING IN DRY, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. WITH RETURN FLOW FIRMLY ESTABLISHED, THICKNESSES WILL
INCREASE AND HIGHS WILL INCREASE A GOOD 5 F OVER TODAY'S
TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON CLIMBING TO ~ 5-7 F ABOVE NORMAL. UNFORTUNATELY,
MODELS BEGIN DEVELOPING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION RIGHT ABOUT
THIS TIME, DECREASING THICKNESSES AND HIGHS BY 3-4 F GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO EJECT NORTHEAST SATURDAY,
ALLOWING HIGHS TO REBOUND TO ~ 5-7 F ABOVE NORMAL. YESTERDAY, THE
GFS WAS SATURATING THE COLUMN TO ABOVE 300 MB IN DEEP EASTERLY FLOW
LATE IN THE WEEK UNDER THIS TROUGH, SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL HEAVY
RAIN EVENT. WELL, THIS ANOMALY IS NOWHERE TO BE FOUND ON CURRENT
RUNS, AS HAPPENS QUITE FREQUENTLY W/THE GFS. EVEN SO, ENOUGH
MOISTURE IS FORECAST UNDER THE TROUGH FOR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, MAINLY IN THE SOUTH.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS MOST PROMISING ATTM. UNFORTUNATELY, QPF
LOOKS RATHER TEPID. HOWEVER, GIVEN THIS PATTERN, CHANGES ARE LIKELY
BETWEEN NOW AND THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. STAY TUNED...
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
MVFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY BECOME VFR BY MID-AFTERNOON AT ALL
TERMINALS, AND ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY
TO SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 84 59 86 61 / 10 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 79 59 84 59 / 30 0 0 0
DRYDEN 81 63 83 63 / 10 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 79 60 84 61 / 30 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 70 56 74 57 / 20 10 0 0
HOBBS 77 57 81 59 / 20 0 0 0
MARFA 73 53 78 55 / 10 10 10 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 82 60 84 62 / 20 0 0 0
ODESSA 81 61 84 63 / 20 0 0 0
WINK 82 62 85 62 / 30 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...13
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