310
FXUS64 KMAF 051831
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
131 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 116 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
- TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH MIDWEEK, AND RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE MINIMAL (ASIDE FROM LINGERING LIGHT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON
IN PARTS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN AND TRANS-PECOS).
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE (20-40%) THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL,
THOUGH LIMITED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL KEEP THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT VERY LOW.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS ENCOURAGES A CONTINUED
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. HIGHS TODAY LOOK
SIMILAR OVERALL TO SUNDAY'S, WITH MOST LOCATIONS TOPPING OUT IN THE
MID-TO-UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S. LOWS TONIGHT ONCE AGAIN BOTTOM OUT IN
THE MID-TO-UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S. HOWEVER, SURFACE WINDS BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY AGAIN OVERNIGHT. THIS ALLOWS MOST LOCATIONS TO TOP OUT
IN THE LOW-TO-MID 80S TUESDAY (WHICH IS STILL NEAR TO JUST BELOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER). LOWS ALSO TICK UP A DEGREE OR TWO
WEDNESDAY MORNING RELATIVE TO TUESDAY MORNING. AS FAR AS RAIN
CHANCES GO, SOME RAIN/LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN EVIDENT FOR PORTIONS
OF THE PERMIAN BASIN AND TRANS-PECOS SINCE THIS MORNING. THESE WILL
GRADUALLY DRIFT WEST/SOUTHWESTWARD AND WANE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON. ONLY A LOW MENTION FOR LIGHT RAIN (10-20%) IS
MAINTAINED FOR PARTS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN AND THE TRANS-PECOS INTO
THIS EVENING. RAIN CHANCES LOOK LOWER OVERALL TUESDAY (<10%) THANKS
TO A LACK OF SUFFICIENT LIFT, NOT TO MENTION A GENERAL DECREASE IN
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.
SPRANG
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
SUBTLE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL PROMOTE WARMER THAN NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
LOW TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, LONG-RANGE
GUIDANCE HAS AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
TEXAS EXTENDING INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO. A DISTURBANCE IN THE
SOUTHWEST GULF ALONG WITH SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS BRING
SURFACE MOISTURE TO THE REGION. AS A RESULT, SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER
AND LOW TO MEDIUM (10-40%) RAIN CHANCES ARE IN STORE THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THESE CHANCES ARE FORECAST MAINLY OVER PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER TRANS PECOS AND BIG BEND REGION EACH AFTERNOON DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING AND UPSLOPE FLOW ACTING AS ADDITIONAL MECHANISMS
FOR SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE
75TH TO NEAR 90TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. GIVEN THE MAINLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED COVERAGE, THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT REMAINS VERY LOW AT THE
MOMENT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE ROCKIES WILL KEEP DRY AIR
IN THE LOWER LEVELS FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS,
RESULTING IN VERY LOW RAIN/STORM CHANCES (~10%). HIGHS EACH
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S FOR MOST. A
WARMING AND DRYING TREND COMMENCES LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS. GUIDANCE HAS HIGH
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE LOW TO UPPER 80S WITH SOME
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NEAR THE RIVER VALLEYS REACHING INTO THE LOW
90S.
LAMBERSON
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
MVFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY BECOME VFR BY MID-AFTERNOON AT ALL
TERMINALS, AND ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY
TO SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 59 86 61 89 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 59 84 59 86 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 63 83 63 85 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 60 84 61 87 / 0 0 0 10
GUADALUPE PASS 56 74 57 76 / 10 0 0 10
HOBBS 57 81 59 84 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 53 78 55 80 / 10 10 0 30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 60 84 62 87 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 61 84 63 86 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 62 85 62 89 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...13
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