326
FXUS64 KMAF 062322
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
622 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 621 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
- A WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW, AFTER WHICH
TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
- THERE IS A 10-30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF
I-10 THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DRY AIRMASS HOVERED OVER THE
REGION ALOFT. THIS IS THANKS TO AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ALLOWING DRY, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO TAKE
SHAPE. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD,
PROMOTING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS TODAY SPAN MAINLY IN THE MID 70S TO MID
80S. SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW
MEXICO INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING MAY ALLOW
A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS
AND PRESIDIO VALLEY. TONIGHT, LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE
MID 50S TO LOW 60S. A SIMILAR WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE AS UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING PERSISTS. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A TOUCH WARMER IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS, WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 7 KTS OR LESS. CU FIELD WILL DISSIPATE BY OR
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
LAMBERSON
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER AND LOW RAIN CHANCES (10-30%) FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 KICK OFF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD. THIS IS DUE TO
AN INVERTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY. A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF ALONG WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS BRING SURFACE MOISTURE TO THE FAR
SOUTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE REGION. AS A RESULT, LOW CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE IN STORE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY ACROSS THE BIG BEND, LOWER TRANS PECOS, AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS.
PWATS ARE FORECAST TO HOVER NEAR THE 75TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. GIVEN THE LIMITED
SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE, THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT REMAINS VERY LOW.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE ROCKIES WILL KEEP DRY AIR IN THE
LOWER LEVELS FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS, RESULTING
IN SLIM TO NONE RAIN/STORM CHANCES (< 10%). SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 70S
TO MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS, THANKS TO THE AFOREMENTIONED INVERTED
TROUGH. BY SATURDAY, THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AND
SUBTLE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE WEST. THIS SETS
UP A WARMING TREND LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S REGIONWIDE.
LAMBERSON
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS, WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 7 KTS OR LESS. CU FIELD WILL DISSIPATE BY OR
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 61 87 62 87 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 60 85 61 84 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 65 86 65 85 / 0 0 0 10
FORT STOCKTON 63 87 63 85 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 58 77 59 74 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 59 82 60 82 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 55 81 57 79 / 0 0 0 30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 62 85 63 85 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 62 85 63 84 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 63 88 64 87 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...55
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