976
FXUS64 KMAF 071709
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1209 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1208 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
- A WARMING TREND CONTINUES TODAY, AFTER WHICH TEMPERATURES WILL
DECREASE SLIGHTLY THURSDAY, BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN THROUGH
SUNDAY OR COLUMBUS DAY.
- THERE IS A 10% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE MARFA PLATEAU AND PRESIDIO VALLEY. THE
WEEKEND LOOKS DRY BEFORE A 10-30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE SPANNING THE
WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CONUS, PUTTING WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO UNDER DRY, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW IS A
TROUGH, NOW MOVING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS. BEFORE THIS FEATURE
ARRIVES OVER THE REGION, THICKNESSES WILL CONTINUE INCREASING,
ADDING A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO YESTERDAY'S TEMPERATURES. TODAY'S
HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S MOST LOCATIONS, AVERAGING A LITTLE
OVER 5 F ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. GRIDS REMAIN DRY, AS CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ARE MUCH HIGHER THAN EXPECTED HIGHS.
TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH THE LLJ WILL REMAIN WEAK, HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM
INTO THE AREA W/THE INCOMING TROUGH, KEEPING OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS IN
THE 60S MOST LOCATIONS, AROUND 10 F ABOVE NORMAL.
THURSDAY, THE TROUGH ARRIVES, SHAVING PERHAPS A DEGREE OR SO OFF OF
TODAY'S HIGHS. ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
MARFA PLATEAU/PRESIDIO VALLEY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES RESUME A GRADUAL UPWARD TRAJECTORY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH DRIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. TO THE WEST, AN UPPER TROUGH OFF THE
WEST COAST WILL DIG SOUTH, PUSHING WEAK RIDGING INTO WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, W/LATEST MODEL RUNS MAXING OUT TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
FORECAST SUNDAY OR COLUMBUS DAY, WHEN HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 90 MOST
LOCATIONS, A GOOD 10 F OR SO ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS
DOWN THE WEST COAST AND WEAK RIDGING MOVES EAST, SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, W/THE
TROUGH SENDING SHORTWAVES OUR WAY BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON OR SO.
THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CHANCES OF CONVECTION NEXT WEEK.
EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO REALLY RAMP UP JUST BEYOND THE EXTENDED
FORECAST, WHEN THE WEST COAST TROUGH MAKES LANDFALL AND BEGINS
TILTING NEGATIVE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT TAF PERIOD, WITH LIGHT WINDS BELOW 10
MPH AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT TERMINALS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 62 87 60 86 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 61 84 59 84 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 65 86 64 84 / 0 0 0 10
FORT STOCKTON 63 86 61 84 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 59 74 57 74 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 60 82 57 81 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 56 79 54 78 / 0 10 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 63 85 61 84 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 63 84 61 83 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 63 87 61 86 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...94
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