363
FXUS64 KMAF 071829
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
129 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 118 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
- WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY TO MID OCTOBER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- THERE IS A LOW (10-20%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS, PRESIDIO VALLEY,
AND BIG BEND. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND BEFORE
MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (10-30%) DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 118 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD WHICH
WILL KEEP THE REGION UNDER DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AS A RESULT,
ANOTHER DRY AND WARM DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS
SPANNING IN THE LOW TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TONIGHT, LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AREAWIDE. AN INVERTED UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER REGION. SOUTHEASTERLY TO
EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM
ISAIAS INTO THE FAR SOUTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE REGION. AS A
RESULT, LOW CHANCES (10-20%) OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE IN STORE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS, PRESIDIO VALLEY, AND
BIG BEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE SIMILAR AS TODAY.
LAMBERSON
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY OCTOBER AND MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. ON
FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A TOUCH COOLER THAN TODAY
AND THURSDAY, THANKS TO DECREASING THICKNESSES FROM THE INVERTED
UPPER TROUGH. HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER
80S REGIONWIDE. SOME CAMS AND MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAVE ISOLATED
STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF THE BIG BEND AND FAR LOWER
TRANS PECOS (TERRELL COUNTY), THOUGH CHANCES WILL BE VERY LOW (~10-
15%) GIVEN FAVORABLE SURFACE MOISTURE FROM ISAIAS IS GOING TO BE
FARTHER EAST. BY THE WEEKEND, SUBTLE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. THIS SETS
UP A DRY AND WARM WEEKEND WHERE TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK INTO THE
MID 80S TO LOW 90S REGIONWIDE. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, LONG-RANGE
GUIDANCE HAS AN UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST COAST,
WHILE A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVES NEAR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH
SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL SUPPLY LOW (10-30%) RAIN
CHANCES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY FOR FAR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS BOTH AFOREMENTIONED WEATHER
SYSTEMS MOVE CLOSER TO THE REGION. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
DISAGREEMENT AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE STRENGTH, TIMING, AND
POSITIONING OF THESE SYSTEMS. DETAILS ON POTENTIAL WEATHER IMPACTS
FOR THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE IRONED OUT AS WE GET CLOSER TIME.
STAY TUNED!
LAMBERSON
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT TAF PERIOD, WITH LIGHT WINDS BELOW 10
MPH AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT TERMINALS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 62 87 60 86 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 61 84 59 84 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 65 86 64 84 / 0 0 0 10
FORT STOCKTON 63 86 61 84 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 59 74 57 74 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 60 82 57 81 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 56 79 54 78 / 0 10 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 63 85 61 84 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 63 84 61 83 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 63 87 61 86 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...94
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