387
FXUS64 KMAF 080503
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1203 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1202 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
- WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY TO MID OCTOBER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- THERE IS A LOW (10-20%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS, PRESIDIO VALLEY,
AND BIG BEND. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND BEFORE
MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (10-30%) DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 118 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD WHICH
WILL KEEP THE REGION UNDER DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AS A RESULT,
ANOTHER DRY AND WARM DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS
SPANNING IN THE LOW TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TONIGHT, LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AREAWIDE. AN INVERTED UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER REGION. SOUTHEASTERLY TO
EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM
ISAIAS INTO THE FAR SOUTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE REGION. AS A
RESULT, LOW CHANCES (10-20%) OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE IN STORE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS, PRESIDIO VALLEY, AND
BIG BEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE SIMILAR AS TODAY.
LAMBERSON
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY OCTOBER AND MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. ON
FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A TOUCH COOLER THAN TODAY
AND THURSDAY, THANKS TO DECREASING THICKNESSES FROM THE INVERTED
UPPER TROUGH. HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER
80S REGIONWIDE. SOME CAMS AND MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAVE ISOLATED
STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF THE BIG BEND AND FAR LOWER
TRANS PECOS (TERRELL COUNTY), THOUGH CHANCES WILL BE VERY LOW (~10-
15%) GIVEN FAVORABLE SURFACE MOISTURE FROM ISAIAS IS GOING TO BE
FARTHER EAST. BY THE WEEKEND, SUBTLE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. THIS SETS
UP A DRY AND WARM WEEKEND WHERE TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK INTO THE
MID 80S TO LOW 90S REGIONWIDE. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, LONG-RANGE
GUIDANCE HAS AN UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST COAST,
WHILE A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVES NEAR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH
SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL SUPPLY LOW (10-30%) RAIN
CHANCES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY FOR FAR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS BOTH AFOREMENTIONED WEATHER
SYSTEMS MOVE CLOSER TO THE REGION. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
DISAGREEMENT AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE STRENGTH, TIMING, AND
POSITIONING OF THESE SYSTEMS. DETAILS ON POTENTIAL WEATHER IMPACTS
FOR THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE IRONED OUT AS WE GET CLOSER TIME.
STAY TUNED!
LAMBERSON
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS IN LIGHT RETURN FLOW,
WITH A FEW CU AND A HIGH CLOUD OR TWO.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 88 63 87 64 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 85 61 85 62 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 88 66 87 66 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 88 63 86 65 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 76 59 76 58 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 83 59 82 61 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 80 55 79 55 / 20 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 86 63 85 65 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 86 63 85 64 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 89 64 88 66 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...99
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