171
FXUS64 KMAF 081700
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1200 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1200 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN
DECREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- THERE IS A LOW (10-20%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF THE MARFA PLATEAU. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, BEFORE CHANCES (~ 10-40%) INCREASE
NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY EVENING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A BROAD, UPPER RIDGE SPANNING THE
WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CONUS, WHICH WOULD NORMALLY MEAN WARMER
TEMPERATURES EXCEPT FOR THE FACT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH IS DEVELOPING
OVER WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, PUTTING A CRIMP IN
THICKNESSES/TEMPERATURES AND YIELDING PERHAPS THE COOLEST DAY THIS
FORECAST AS HIGHS AVERAGE ONLY AROUND 5 F ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. DESPITE
THIS, HIGHS WILL STILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S MOST LOCATIONS. RAIN
CHANCES WILL REMAIN NOMINAL, W/CAMS SUGGESTING ONLY ISOLATED
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE VICINITY OF THE MARFA PLATEAU.
TONIGHT, THE LLJ REMAINS WEAK, AND UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES,
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LIKEWISE BESTOW THE COOLEST
MINIMUMS THIS FORECAST. EVEN SO, THEY'LL STILL BE AROUND 10 F ABOVE
NORMAL, PUTTING MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 60S.
FRIDAY, A COUPLE OF UPPER TROUGHS OFF THE WEST COAST WILL DIG SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST, NUDGING THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST AND INCREASING
RETURN FLOW SLIGHTLY. WHILE TODAY SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY THIS
FORECAST, FRIDAY WILL BE ONLY A DEGREE OR SO WARMER, IF THAT. ASIDE
FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON, THE SHORT TERM
WILL BE DRY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, A TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST WILL DIG
SOUTH, ABSORBING THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE RACHEL AND PUSHING A
RIDGE THROUGH WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO SATURDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
LEESIDE TROUGHING ON THE FRONT RANGE INCREASES RETURN FLOW LOCALLY.
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS FORECAST WILL PEAK SUNDAY, WHEN HIGHS TOP OUT
~ 10-15 F ABOVE NORMAL, PUTTING MOST AREAS IN THE 90S. MEANWHILE, A
SECONDARY, STRONGER TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING DOWN THE WEST COAST,
INCREASING PROGRESSIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING RIDGE. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MAKE
LANDFALL IN SOCAL MONDAY NIGHT, AND MOVE EAST INTO THE ROCKIES BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT EFFECT OF THIS WILL BE DECREASING
THICKNESSES AFTER SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS ROUNDING OUT THE EXTENDED
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AT A MERE 5-10 F ABOVE NORMAL, PUTTING MOST
PARTS BACK IN THE 80S. SOMETIME DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK,
THE SECONDARY TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ABSORB THE REMNANTS OF T.S.
SIMON, AND MOVE A SLUG OF TROPICAL MOISTURE THROUGH WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. CURRENT MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THIS WILL OCCUR
TUESDAY EVENING OR SO. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INCREASE PWATS AT
KMAF TO 1.58" BY 06Z WEDNESDAY, WHILE ECMWF SOUNDINGS INCREASE TO
1.78" BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. CLIMATOLOGY PUTS THE 100TH PERCENTILE AT
12Z WEDNESDAY AT 1.12", SO A DECENT RAINFALL EVENT COULD BE SHAPING
UP, AND BEARS WATCHING. QPF COULD BE BETTER, BUT THIS WILL INCREASE
IF IT PANS OUT. HOWEVER, IT'S ALWAYS A GOOD BET THAT THIS WILL DRY
OUT IN A MODEL RUN OR TWO. FINALLY, SHOULD THE LREF PAN OUT W/THE
TRACK/TIMING OF THE TROUGH, HIGH WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
GUADALUPES/DELAWARES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT TAF PERIOD, WITH LIGHT WINDS BELOW 10
MPH AND PRIMARILY FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT TERMINALS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 63 87 64 88 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 61 84 61 87 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 65 87 66 88 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 63 86 64 89 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 59 76 58 79 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 59 82 60 84 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 56 79 56 81 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 63 86 64 87 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 62 85 64 86 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 63 88 64 90 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...94
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