576
FXUS64 KMAF 090510
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1210 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1209 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN
DECREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN STORE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS, PRESIDIO VALLEY, BIG BEND, AND
MARFA PLATEAU.
- DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, BEFORE CHANCES
(10-40%) BEGIN TO INCREASE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS. THIS LOW HAS INDUCED SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND
MARFA PLATEAU. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SIMILAR AREAS INCLUDING THE
BIG BEND AND PRESIDIO VALLEY. INVERTED TROUGHING ALOFT COUPLED WITH
THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES DUE TO
DECREASED THICKNESSES. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO
UPPER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TONIGHT, LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
50S TO MID 60S AREAWIDE. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW BEGINS TO
SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, VERY
LOW CHANCES (< 10%) FOR RAIN ARE IN STORE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SIMILAR AS TODAY.
LAMBERSON
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
A WARM AND DRY WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IS THANKS
TO SUBTLE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW
90S FOR A LOT OF LOCATIONS WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. FOR CONTEXT, THESE TEMPERATURES ARE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LUCKILY, THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND DRY WEATHER LOOK TO COME TO AN END FOR SOME BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE HAS AN UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST COAST, WHILE TROPICAL STORM SIMON MOVES NEAR THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. A RICH PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM SIMON COMBINED WITH
SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL SUPPLY LOW (10-30%) RAIN
CHANCES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY FOR FAR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO. ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ARE BEGINNING TO
HIGHLIGHT THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM SIMON BEING ABSORBED
INTO THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM BY MONDAY EVENING. STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SUPPLIES FURTHER LOW RAIN CHANCES
(20-40%) ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ENSEMBLES DEPICT PWATS REACHING ABOVE THE 90TH TO NEAR
MAXIMUM CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE INDICATING THE THREAT OF HEAVY
RAINFALL. DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALSO CREATES A FAVORABLE
PATTERN FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP. STRONG WINDS ACROSS
THE GUADALUPE/DELAWARE MOUNTAINS WILL BE ANOTHER POTENTIAL HAZARD
TO MONITOR. THERE STILL REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING,
POSITIONING, AND PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THEREFORE, DETAILS ON POTENTIAL WEATHER
IMPACTS FOR THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE IRONED OUT AS WE GET
CLOSER IN TIME. STAY TUNED! CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN COOLING DOWN BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
LAMBERSON
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH MOST TERMINALS
SEEING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 87 63 89 67 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 85 60 87 64 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 88 66 89 68 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 87 64 89 67 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 75 58 78 62 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 82 59 83 63 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 78 55 80 58 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 85 63 87 67 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 85 63 86 67 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 87 63 89 67 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...93
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