584
FXUS64 KMAF 090815
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
315 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 315 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH TUESDAY, THEN
DECREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THURSDAY.
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, BEFORE RAIN
CHANCES (10-40%) BEGIN TO INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
A WEAK UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MEANDER ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS THIS
MORNING, BUT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH TO THE EAST AS RIDGING MOVES IN
BEHIND THIS NEARBY LOW AND HURRICANE ISAIAS WELL TO THE EAST OF THE
REGION. OVERALL, THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE MUCH DRIER WITH
PERHAPS A STORM OR TWO TRYING TO DEVELOP NEAR BIG BEND OR JUST OVER
THE BORDER IN COAHUILA AND CHIHUAHUA. HIGHS BOTH TODAY AND ON
SATURDAY REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SETTLE IN THE 60S. THOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE MUCH MORE SEASONABLE,
THEY REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR NEARLY MID OCTOBER.
-STICKNEY
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT AND GRADUALLY SLIDES EASTWARD. THE
WARMING TREND CULMINATES ON TUESDAY, WITH MOST LOCATIONS LOOKING TO
TOP OUT IN THE 90S (80S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND PORTIONS OF SE
NM). MEANWHILE, LOWS TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ARE
FORECAST TO GENERALLY FALL INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S. OVERALL,
TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL RUN ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL, ACCOMPANIED BY MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, THE
WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT EARLY TUESDAY, AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES OUR REGION FROM THE ROCKIES. MODELS SHOW MOISTURE
FROM WHAT IS NOW HURRICANE SIMON, OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO,
BECOMING ENTRAINED INTO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS EARLY AS MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS BRINGS LOW (10-15%) RAIN CHANCES TO OUR WESTERNMOST
COUNTIES AND SE NM MONDAY NIGHT. THE REMNANTS OF SIMON CONTINUE TO
PHASE INTO THE UPPER TROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ALL THE WHILE, A
SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ROLLS OVER THE ROCKIES INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS, DRAGGING A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH IT.
INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM THE SLOW-MOVING TROUGH BRING 10-40%
RAIN CHANCES OVER MOST OF THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL TEND TO BE COLLOCATED WITH THE
SURFACE TROUGH. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS STORM SYSTEM,
ANOTHER HAZARD TO MONITOR MAY BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS WITHIN
THE GUADALUPE/DELAWARE MOUNTAINS. OF COURSE, DETAILS WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BECOME CLEARER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OTHERWISE,
LOWERING HIGHS BRING A RETURN OF HIGHS PREDOMINANTLY IN THE 80S
BY THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH MOST TERMINALS
SEEING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 87 63 89 67 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 85 60 87 63 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 87 66 89 68 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 87 64 89 66 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 76 58 78 62 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 82 59 83 63 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 78 56 79 58 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 85 64 86 67 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 85 63 86 67 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 87 63 89 67 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...93
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