495
FXUS64 KMEG 141623
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1023 AM CST THU NOV 14 2024
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1017 AM CST THU NOV 14 2024
STRATUS PERSISTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE, ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER WITH CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE MIDSOUTH. THERE WILL BE A STRUGGLE BETWEEN COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON TO DETERMINE HIGH
TEMPERATURES. SO FAR IT LOOKS LIKE THE SUNSHINE IS LEADING THE
BATTLE. BUMPED HIGH TEMPERATURES UP A 2-3 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION, BUT WE WILL LIKELY STILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE
60S. EXPECT A CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST THU NOV 14 2024
A DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH THE
NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LIKELY NOT ARRIVING UNTIL MONDAY EVENING
INTO TUESDAY. EXPECT FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
TOMORROW, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, REACHING THE LOW TO MID 70S BY MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST THU NOV 14 2024
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS USHERED SHOWERS OUT OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING, WITH SOME PATCHY FOG ALONG THE TN RIVER LEFT IN ITS WAKE.
LATEST NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS RGB SHOWS CLEARING SKIES ALONG AND
WEST OF THE MS RIVER, WITH LOW CLOUDS CONTINUING ACROSS WEST TN
AND PORTIONS OF NORTH MS. DO EXPECT CLOUD COVERAGE TO CONTINUE FOR
THESE LOCATIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, WITH THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA LIKELY REMAINING CLEAR. NONETHELESS, HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A HAIR BELOW NORMAL TODAY, GENERALLY SPANNING THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S.
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY, WHICH WILL PROVIDE SOME PRETTY
FANTASTIC FALL-LIKE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AGAIN TOMORROW. A WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO THE LOW TO MID 70S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY ON MONDAY, AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE REGION. DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL
EJECT FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY, ALLOWING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO DRAW CLOSER TO THE AREA. THERE IS STILL SOME
QUESTION AS HOW EARLY ANY PREFRONTAL SHOWERS ARRIVE, SO HAVE LEFT
SOME POPS IN BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHER POPS
WILL ARRIVE CLOSER TO THE FRONT, WHICH LIKELY WON'T ACTUALLY MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA UNTIL TUESDAY. AS THINGS STAND, BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WOULD MOVE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY, WITH LITTLE
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. THERE IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN PATTERN
FOLLOWING BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY AS SOME MODELS LET PRECIPITATION
LINGER WHILE OTHERS DO NOT. ONE THING FOR SURE BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE MUCH, MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS
SUGGEST HIGH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S BY WEDNESDAY,
WITH EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES NEAR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. EVENTUAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH OF A MASSIVE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE PLAINS, BUT GIVEN THAT
THIS IS AT THE END OF THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD WILL LEAVE IT AT
THAT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 538 AM CST THU NOV 14 2024
VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE PERIOD. ON SATELLITE, CURRENTLY NOTING
MVFR DECK ROTATING DOWN ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER-LOW CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. SOME HI-RES GUIDANCE HAS THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THIS DECK CATCHING JBR FOR A BIT THIS MORNING AND MEM
AROUND 18Z AND PERSISTING FOR A FEW HOURS. DECIDED IT WILL BE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO INCLUDE. MKL WILL EXPERIENCE THIS FOR A MUCH
LONGER PERIOD AND IT SHOULD MISS TUP.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP NW
WINDS UP AND GUSTING TO 18KTS AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
AFTER SUNSET N WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 4 KTS. THANKS TO
WEDNESDAY'S BENEFICIAL RAINFALL AND TONIGHT'S LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES, SOME FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...DKJ
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