670
FXUS64 KMEG 160503
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1103 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 912 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTH INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MEANWHILE, THE GOES-16 NIGHTTIME FOG PRODUCT
SHOWS THE PRESENCE OF SOME STRATUS LOCATED OVER A FEW WEST
TENNESSEE COUNTIES NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER. TEMPERATURES RANGE
FROM THE 40S TO LOWER 50S AS OF 8 PM CST. FOG AND STRATUS
POTENTIAL REMAIN THE PREDOMINANT CHALLENGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT.
LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST THE AFOREMENTIONED STRATUS
NEAR THE TN RIVER MAY RETROGRADE BACK INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
TENNESSEE OVERNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BEGIN TO VEER E/SE
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS MUCH MUCH LOWER FOR THE
AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION, PATCHY FOG
IS POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF THE CLOUD COVER WHERE WINDS ARE RELATIVELY
LIGHT, ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. WILL MAKE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND FOG POTENTIAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE, THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
IS IN DECENT SHAPE.
CJC
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE MIDSOUTH LATE SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. TUESDAY LOOKS WET WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING
WEDNESDAY. A SECONDARY, STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN THE
COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON AFTER MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT DUE TO CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT
WINDS AND ABUNDANT GROUND MOISTURE. MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE
40S. HIGHS TOMORROW SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S,
UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
A BROAD RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE
PLAINS AND ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY OVER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AS A RESULT, MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT OVER THE APPALACHIANS
SUNDAY SETTING UP RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. 15-20 MPH
SOUTH WINDS WILL USHER 60-65 DEGREE DEW POINTS BACK ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS DO NOT LOOK
LIKELY. AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER WEDNESDAY. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES COULD BE IN THE 30S AREAWIDE FRIDAY
MORNING WITH HIGHS POTENTIALLY IN THE 40S. NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY THURSDAY. SPEEDS SHOULD
REMAIN JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERION (SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25
MPH OR GREATER) WITH GUSTS BELOW 40 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. IN
ADDITION, SOME FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THOUGH THERE IS SOME
QUESTION AS TO WHERE AND HOW DENSE WITH THE POTENTIAL CLOUD DECK
MOVING IN. ALL IN ALL CONFIDENCE ON LOW CLOUDS/FOG HAS DECREASED
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE 00Z HIGH RES DATA. HAVE SHIFTED TO USING
TEMPOS FOR THE LOW CLOUDS AT MEM/MKL. JBR PROBABLY HAS THE BEST
CHANCE FOR IFR CONDS LATER TONIGHT WITH HREF SHOWING HIGHER FOG
PROBABILITIES IN THAT AREA. WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND SLOWLY VEER
FROM E TO SE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...SJM
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