087
FXUS64 KMEG 161607
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1007 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1003 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
SKIES ARE SUNNY ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S. SUNNY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 60S.
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH NO UPDATE NEEDED.
ARS
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 231 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH TODAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. A WARMING TREND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP QUICKLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF TUESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MIDWEEK, MAINLY ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE, BUT MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
KEY POINTS:
- WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 1".
- MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE WEEK BEHIND A STRONG
COLD FRONT. SOME AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE
SEASON.
DENSE FOG IS NOT NEARLY AS WIDESPREAD AS WE SAW 24 HOURS AGO, WITH
ONLY A FEW AREAS REPORTING VISIBILITY OF LESS THAN 2 MILES. WINDS
ARE LIGHT ACROSS THE REGION, BUT MANY AREAS ARE REPORTING WIND
SPEEDS OF 3-5 MPH WHICH MAY LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL IN THESE AREAS
THROUGH SUNRISE, FAVORING A VERY LOW STRATUS DECK (OR NOTHING AT
ALL).
LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE, THE MID-SOUTH IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE, CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
EXTENDING POLEWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A DEEP TROUGH HAS TAKEN
SHAPE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH AN INTENSIFYING SUBTROPICAL JET
STREAMING FROM THE BAJA, ACROSS NM, AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE MID-SOUTH WILL REMAIN BENEATH THIS RIDGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
EXPERIENCING A WARMING TREND AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS, ADVECTING
WARM/MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE (20%
CHANCE) SUNDAY NIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS AR AND MO WITHIN THIS WARM
ADVECTION REGIME, BUT COVERAGE AND QPF APPEAR LIMITED.
RAIN CHANCES WILL RAMP UP QUICKLY MONDAY AFTERNOON WEST OF THE MS
RIVER, OVERSPREADING THE REMAINDER OF THE MID-SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR THUNDER LOOKS TO BE CAPPED RIGHT
AROUND 20% WITH MOSTLY SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH ACROSS MOST OF
THE CWA WITH THE THE 50TH PERCENTILE QPF TRENDING JUST SLIGHTLY
LOWER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE RATHER GUSTY
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS WHILE
LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE HOURLY NBM
PROBABILITIES STILL INDICATE A 20-40% CHANCE OF REACHING THE WIND
ADVISORY CRITERION (25 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS) ACROSS NORTHEAST AR
AND THE MO BOOTHEEL WITH 40 MPH GUST PROBS LIMITED TO AROUND 20%.
WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY IN THE WAKE
OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT.
THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE DISCREPANCY WITHIN THE GLOBAL
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE MIDWEEK AND BEYOND. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT THE EVENTUAL CUT-OFF SOUTHWEST LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE PLAINS EARLY IN THE WEEK, PHASING WITH THE POLAR BRANCH
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. THIS TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO SET UP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS LATE WEEK AS A RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THERE IS A CHANCE (20-30%) FOR
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS THIS POLAR TROUGH TRAVERSES THE
REGION. NORTH MS MAY MISS OUT ON THIS LIGHT RAINFALL GIVEN THE
ANTICIPATED STORM TRACK AND SOME LIGHT WRAP-AROUND PRECIP MAY
LINGER INTO THURSDAY ACROSS WEST TN.
WHILE ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SIGNIFICANT COOL-DOWN FOR LATE
WEEK, THE EPS/GEPS SUGGEST TEMPERATURES AROUND 50 DEGREES
THURSDAY. HOWEVER, THERE ARE TWO CLUSTERS OF ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS
(DOMINATED BY THE GEFS) THAT DEPICT A MORE WESTWARD POSITION OF
THE TROUGH OVER THE OH VALLEY ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING IN THE MID 40S. THESE OUTLYING CLUSTERS (MADE UP OF
LESS THAN 20 MEMBERS OF THE LREF GUIDANCE) MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40S ON FRIDAY, BUT MOST GUIDANCE IS TRENDING JUST SLIGHTLY
WARMER WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 50S. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO APPROACH FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNINGS (AND PERHAPS AS EARLY AS THURSDAY MORNING) WITH
THE MOST LIKELY REGIONS TO EXPERIENCE A FREEZE BEING WEST TN AND
NORTH MS (60-70% PROBABILITY).
MJ
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 502 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY FOR ALL TAF SITES, BUT SOME
PATCHY FOG IN THE AREA COULD LEAD TO TEMPORARY VIS/CIG
RESTRICTIONS NOW THROUGH JUST AFTER SUNRISE AT MKL/JBR/TUP. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME PATCHY FOG AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT, BUT
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE AT ANY TERMINALS IN THIS TAF
CYCLE. E/SE WINDS CONTINUE AND WILL SLOWLY BECOME S OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND TO JUST ABOVE 5 KTS.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...MJ
AVIATION...CMA
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