742
FXUS64 KMEG 170821
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
221 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
..NEW SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 221 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND THROUGH MUCH OF
TOMORROW, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY SPANNING THE 70S. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA BY TOMORROW EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, WITH
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAINING AROUND TO LESS THAN HALF AN INCH.
DRIER AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY ONWARD, WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
ANOTHER QUIET AND COOL MORNING ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH, WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA. CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY SPREADING ACROSS
ARKANSAS AND EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY.
DESPITE THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES TODAY LIKELY REACHING THE UPPER 60S
NORTH TO LOW 70S SOUTH AS WAA MOVES INTO THE AREA.
SHORT-LIVED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION INTO TOMORROW, CONTINUING TO DRIVE OUR TEMPERATURES UP A
FEW MORE DEGREES. HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 70S ON MONDAY ACROSS
THE MID-SOUTH. A CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL QUICKLY EJECT OUT OF
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY, WITH A GROWING PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. CURRENT CONSENSUS IS THAT WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 15 TO 20 MPH, WITH SOME GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30
TO 35 MPH. NBM PROBABILITIES ARE HIGHLIGHTING A 60 TO 70% CHANCE
OF EXCEEDING 25 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS AND 40 MPH WIND GUSTS ACROSS
NE AR BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH, WHICH WOULD MEET TO JUST EXCEED
LOCAL ADVISORY CRITERIA. A WIND ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED IN A
LATER FORECAST PACKAGE FOR THOSE WEST OF THE MS RIVER, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NE AR. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RAPIDLY APPROACH THE AREA BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, BRINGING A LINE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE
REGION. INSTABILITY LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST AT THIS POINT, SO WHILE
WE CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, THE ENVIRONMENT DOESN'T
LOOK LIKE IT WILL SUPPORT ANYTHING STRONG AT THIS POINT. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT THE REGION BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN FAIRLY
UNIMPRESSIVE, WITH AMOUNTS LIKELY AT OR BELOW HALF AN INCH WHEN
ALL IS SAID AND DONE.
BY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST, THERE ARE SOME
CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE ON THE PATH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL LOW AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK, KEEPING THE PARENT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE UPPER MIDWEST WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A MORE SOUTHERLY PATH, BRINGING IT THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. BOTH
SOLUTIONS WILL LEAD TO A DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE
MID-SOUTH, WITH THE MAIN QUESTION BEING JUST HOW COLD WE WILL GET.
THE FURTHER SOUTHWARD PATH WOULD LEAD TO A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS
MOVING ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH, WITH A WARMER SOLUTION IF THE UPPER-
LOW REMAINS FURTHER NORTH. CURRENT CONSENSUS HAS HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY SPANNING THE 50S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
30S WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS DO HAVE THE COLDEST TREND, WITH SOME LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY
APPROACHING FREEZING, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
MAINLY VFR OVERNIGHT. LATEST HI-RES DATA CONTINUES TO HINT AT
REDUCED VSBYS FROM JBR NORTHWARD SO ADDED SOME LIGHT FOG THERE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PLUS SOME
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CIGS SUNDAY AT MEM,
MKL AND JBR. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY SUNDAY
MORNING AROUND 6-8 KTS.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...SJM
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