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FXUS64 KMEG 171608
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1008 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1005 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S. DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD WITH NO UPDATE NEEDED.
ARS
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 221 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND THROUGH MUCH OF
TOMORROW, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY SPANNING THE 70S. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA BY TOMORROW EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, WITH
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAINING AROUND TO LESS THAN HALF AN INCH.
DRIER AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY ONWARD, WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
ANOTHER QUIET AND COOL MORNING ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH, WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA. CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY SPREADING ACROSS
ARKANSAS AND EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY.
DESPITE THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES TODAY LIKELY REACHING THE UPPER 60S
NORTH TO LOW 70S SOUTH AS WAA MOVES INTO THE AREA.
SHORT-LIVED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION INTO TOMORROW, CONTINUING TO DRIVE OUR TEMPERATURES UP A
FEW MORE DEGREES. HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 70S ON MONDAY ACROSS
THE MID-SOUTH. A CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL QUICKLY EJECT OUT OF
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY, WITH A GROWING PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. CURRENT CONSENSUS IS THAT WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 15 TO 20 MPH, WITH SOME GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30
TO 35 MPH. NBM PROBABILITIES ARE HIGHLIGHTING A 60 TO 70% CHANCE
OF EXCEEDING 25 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS AND 40 MPH WIND GUSTS ACROSS
NE AR BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH, WHICH WOULD MEET TO JUST EXCEED
LOCAL ADVISORY CRITERIA. A WIND ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED IN A
LATER FORECAST PACKAGE FOR THOSE WEST OF THE MS RIVER, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NE AR. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RAPIDLY APPROACH THE AREA BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, BRINGING A LINE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE
REGION. INSTABILITY LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST AT THIS POINT, SO WHILE
WE CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, THE ENVIRONMENT DOESN'T
LOOK LIKE IT WILL SUPPORT ANYTHING STRONG AT THIS POINT. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT THE REGION BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN FAIRLY
UNIMPRESSIVE, WITH AMOUNTS LIKELY AT OR BELOW HALF AN INCH WHEN
ALL IS SAID AND DONE.
BY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST, THERE ARE SOME
CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE ON THE PATH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL LOW AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK, KEEPING THE PARENT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE UPPER MIDWEST WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A MORE SOUTHERLY PATH, BRINGING IT THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. BOTH
SOLUTIONS WILL LEAD TO A DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE
MID-SOUTH, WITH THE MAIN QUESTION BEING JUST HOW COLD WE WILL GET.
THE FURTHER SOUTHWARD PATH WOULD LEAD TO A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS
MOVING ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH, WITH A WARMER SOLUTION IF THE UPPER-
LOW REMAINS FURTHER NORTH. CURRENT CONSENSUS HAS HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY SPANNING THE 50S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
30S WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS DO HAVE THE COLDEST TREND, WITH SOME LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY
APPROACHING FREEZING, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 533 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED TODAY. A MIDLEVEL
CLOUD DECK OVER AR CONTINUES TO EDGE TOWARD THE MIDSOUTH. VFR
WILL PREVAIL UNDER THIS DECK, BUT MEM MAY SEE A FEW HOURS OF CIGS
BELOW THE FL040 ILS APPROACH THRESHOLD THROUGH MIDMORNING. TO THE
SOUTH, HIGH MVFR CIGS MAY AFFECT TUP THROUGH MIDMORNING.
LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN LATE TONIGHT, WITH
SURFACE WIND RESPONSE EXPECTED SOON AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY.
PWB
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...PWB
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