794
FXUS64 KMEG 181148 AAA
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
548 AM CST MON NOV 18 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 210 AM CST MON NOV 18 2024
MILD AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH TODAY,
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30+
MPH AT TIMES. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT, BRINGING
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
LESS THAN AN INCH. A DRY AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER PATTERN WILL
BEGIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 30S.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 AM CST MON NOV 18 2024
MILD CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MONDAY MORNING WITH MUCH OF THE MID-
SOUTH CURRENTLY IN THE 60S. HAVE SOME LIGHT, ISOLATED SHOWERS ON
RADAR GENERALLY NORTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR THAT ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
SHOWERS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY THE TIME MOST WAKE UP THIS
MORNING. REST OF TODAY WILL BE PRETTY MILD FOR MID-NOVEMBER, WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE 70S FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA, MAYBE EVEN APPROACHING SOME 80 DEGREE MARKS ALONG OUR
SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES IN THE CWA. OF NOTE, PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY, BRINGING SOME GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
THE MID-SOUTH. CONSENSUS IS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH, WITH
SOME 30+ MPH GUSTS. IN RELATION TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA, NBM
PROBABILITIES DO HAVE AROUND A 50 TO 60% CHANCE OF EXCEEDANCE IN
SOME POCKETS ACROSS NE AR AND THE MO BOOTHEEL MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. GIVEN THIS WOULD LIKELY BE OVER SUCH A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME, WILL OPT NOT TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE, BUT DO NOTE THAT WINDS WILL BE RATHER GUSTY
TODAY.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL QUICKLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS
EVENING, WITH QUICK MOVING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY
THE EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES REMAIN VERY UNIMPRESSIVE, WITH THE
BETTER SET UP LIKELY REMAINING TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH. IF
THUNDERSTORMS WERE ABLE TO TAP INTO ANYTHING SURFACE BASED, WHICH
LOOKS VERY UNLIKELY, SOME STRONG WOULDS COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES IN THE CWA. NONETHELESS, WITH THE
BULK OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT, THINKING THIS CHANCE IS
VERY, VERY LOW. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW
0.5" FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, WITH AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.5"
TO AN 1" FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF. SHOWERS WILL FINALLY EXIT THE
REGION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH TUESDAY IS STILL EXPECTED TO
BE PRETTY MILD WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE U.S. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, AIDING TO
KEEP THE AREA IN A DRY AND COOLER PATTERN. REINFORCING COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY, FINALLY KNOCKING OUR
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH, BRINGING BACK
GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA. CONDITIONS LIKELY WILL REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT STILL GUSTY NONETHELESS. THIS STEEP
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN INTO THURSDAY, BEFORE FINALLY
SUBSIDING FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 30S. STILL LOOKS LIKE SOME LOCATIONS COULD EXPERIENCE
THEIR FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS,
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA IN RURAL LOCATIONS. BY
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, MODELS ARE DEPICTING A SOME ZONAL
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE AREA, SO DOES LOOK LIKE TEMPS
WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 548 AM CST MON NOV 18 2024
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION WEATHER IMPACT TODAY, IN
ADVANCE OF DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. A LOW LEVEL
JET WILL INTENSIFY FOLLOWING SUNSET, WITH SOUTHERLY FL020 WINDS
REACHING 40-50KT AT ALL MIDSOUTH TERMINALS.
IN ADDITION TO THE COMPRESSION POTENTIAL FROM THE LOW LEVEL JET,
HREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SUFFICIENT CHANCE OF TS TO WARRANT A
PROB30 MENTION FOR TSRA AT MEM DURING THE ARRIVAL PUSH. THE TS
WINDOW WILL SHOULD BE RELATIVELY BRIEF. AS MODEL GUIDANCE TIMING
TIGHTENS UP LATER TODAY, THE PROB30 TSRA VALID PERIOD MAY BE
SHORTENED.
PWB
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...PWB
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