485
FXUS64 KMEG 182121
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
321 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
..NEW SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 214 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
A FAST MOVING, NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH TONIGHT. STRONG SOUTH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL AS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. A SECONDARY FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TOMORROW NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS. STRONG NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. NEXT
WEEKEND LOOKS COLD AND DRY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS.
THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A NARROW, FAST MOVING LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT SHOULD EXIT THE MIDSOUTH BY MIDDAY
TOMORROW. SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BOOST
DEW POINTS ACROSS THE REGION, REACHING A MAX OF 66-68 DEGREES JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WIND SPEEDS MAY REACH 25 MPH IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI. THE NBM PROBABILISTIC
GUIDANCE FEATURES A 20-30 PERCENT OF SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 MPH OR
HIGHER. ADDITIONALLY, THIS GUIDANCE FEATURES ABOUT A 40 TO 50%
CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH OR GRATER. A SMALL WIND ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED, BUT AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
ISSUE ANY HEADLINES. WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE AND THE RESULTING
WIND SHEAR WILL PROBABLY CAUSE SOME AVIATION CONCERNS, BUT SHOULD
NOT BE TOO IMPACT FOR THE GENERAL PUBLIC AT LARGE. RAINFALL
TOTALS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY TOMORROW SHOULD BE IN THE 0.25 TO
0.75 INCH RANGE, HIGHEST IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND LOWEST IN THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND ALONG THE KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE STATE LINE.
TUESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST LOOKS DRY. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TOMORROW
NIGHT USHERING IN A COLDER AIRMASS. ANOTHER WINDY DAY CAN BE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY FEATURING NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15
MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 30S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY,
TRENDING WARMER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
30/SIRMON
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST MON NOV 18 2024
GUSTY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS EVENING,
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. CONVECTIVE
CHANCES WILL RAMP UP HEADING INTO THIS EVENING ALONG AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. CONTINUED PREVIOUS FORECAST TRENDS WITH PROB30 GROUPS
INCLUDED BASED ON TIMING OF THE MORE INTENSE STORMS. FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
THRU REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...ARS
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