883
FXUS64 KMEG 190248
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
848 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 847 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS EVENING PLACES A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA, WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW INTO CENTRAL
MISSOURI/ARKANSAS, AND THEN BACK ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST.
REGIONAL WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS SHOW NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
WITH AN OCCASIONAL ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
LATEST MESOANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A LESS THAN FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-
SOUTH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. KINEMATICS ARE DECENT BUT
THE LACK OF INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO REMAIN THE LIMITING FACTOR
FOR ANY STRONG CONVECTION.
OVERALL FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE BUT WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
TO ACCOUNT FOR SHORT-TERM TRENDS.
CJC
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 214 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
A FAST MOVING, NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH TONIGHT. STRONG SOUTH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL AS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. A SECONDARY FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TOMORROW NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS. STRONG NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. NEXT
WEEKEND LOOKS COLD AND DRY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS.
THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A NARROW, FAST MOVING LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT SHOULD EXIT THE MIDSOUTH BY MIDDAY
TOMORROW. SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BOOST
DEW POINTS ACROSS THE REGION, REACHING A MAX OF 66-68 DEGREES JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WIND SPEEDS MAY REACH 25 MPH IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI. THE NBM PROBABILISTIC
GUIDANCE FEATURES A 20-30 PERCENT OF SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 MPH OR
HIGHER. ADDITIONALLY, THIS GUIDANCE FEATURES ABOUT A 40 TO 50%
CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH OR GRATER. A SMALL WIND ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED, BUT AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
ISSUE ANY HEADLINES. WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE AND THE RESULTING
WIND SHEAR WILL PROBABLY CAUSE SOME AVIATION CONCERNS, BUT SHOULD
NOT BE TOO IMPACT FOR THE GENERAL PUBLIC AT LARGE. RAINFALL
TOTALS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY TOMORROW SHOULD BE IN THE 0.25 TO
0.75 INCH RANGE, HIGHEST IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND LOWEST IN THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND ALONG THE KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE STATE LINE.
TUESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST LOOKS DRY. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TOMORROW
NIGHT USHERING IN A COLDER AIRMASS. ANOTHER WINDY DAY CAN BE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY FEATURING NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15
MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 30S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY,
TRENDING WARMER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
30/SIRMON
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 556 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
A LINE OF SHRAS WITH SOME EMBEDDED TSRAS WILL PUSH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. LLWS AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. EXPECT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. KEPT SOME TS AT JBR AND MEM GIVEN THE LATEST
TRENDS AND HI-RES CAMS. EXPECT RAPID IMPROVEMENT INITIALLY POST
FRONTAL AT JBR, MEM AND MKL. AS THE FRONT SLOWS EXPECT LOW CLOUDS
TO LINGER AT TUP WELL INTO TUESDAY. GUSTY SSE WINDS WILL VEER TO
SSW AND DIMINISH WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO
LIGHT NW ON TUESDAY.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...SJM
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