543
FXUS64 KMEG 191619
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1019 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1004 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
SKIES ARE CLOUDY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES. THE FIRST OF TWO COLD FRONTS IS LOCATED ACROSS THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE MID-SOUTH. ALL OF THE RAIN THAT HAD DEVELOPED
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IS NOW IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND NORTH ALABAMA.
THE SECOND COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
INTO WEST TEXAS.
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FRONTS, DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-
SOUTH WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE SECOND COLD FRONT WILL
REACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MID-SOUTH TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT, BUT
DRIER AND COLDER AIR WILL BE FOUND BEHIND IT. THIS WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES STARTING
WEDNESDAY.
ANY REMAINING POPS FROM THIS AFTERNOON'S FORECAST HAVE BEEN
REMOVED.
ARS
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 307 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. BY WEDNESDAY, MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER INTO THE MID-SOUTH WITH FREEZING
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
EARLY MORNING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS PLACE A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER IOWA, WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT REACHING SOUTH INTO
LOUISIANA. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY, SHOWERS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
MID-SOUTH WITH THE CLOSEST LIGHTNING SITUATED OVER CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY PUSHES EAST. SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY WITH MAXT VALUES IN THE LOW 70S
AREAWIDE.
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS NORTHEAST, IT WILL PHASE WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THIS
FEATURE PUSHES INTO THE MID-SOUTH, A MUCH WELCOMED COLD FRONT WILL
IMPACT THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ENCOMPASS
THE REGION BY MIDWEEK, WITH FRIDAY BEING THE COLDEST DAY AS HIGHS
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. A FEW PLACES MAY EXPERIENCE
THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS LOWS FALL
INTO THE LOW 30S FOR PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH
MISSISSIPPI. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXISTS
ON SATURDAY MORNING, WITH WSUP VIEWER PROBABILITIES PAINTING A
50-70% CHANCE OF LOWS BELOW 33 DEGREES IN THESE AREAS.
THE COLD AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN SUNDAY,
WARMING TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE 70S BY MONDAY. LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE NEXT BEST RAIN CHANCES MAY RETURN NEXT
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
ANS
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 544 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
IFR/MVFR DECK WILL AFFECT MKL AND TUP THIS MORNING, IN THE WAKE
OF EXITING -SHRA. FURTHER WEST, GOES IR IMAGERY SHOWED EXPANDING
LIFR CIG/VIS OVER EASTERN AR IN THE PREDAWN HOURS. THE ONSET OF
SURFACE HEATING MAY HALT THE EXPANSION BEFORE THIS DECK REACHES
MEM, BUT IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL. IN ADDITION, THERE REMAINS A
CHANCE OF MVFR STRATO-CUMULUS FORMATION ALONG THE MS RIVER WHERE
SKIES REMAIN FREE OF THE LIFR DECK. A MESSY SET OF CLOUD DECK
SCENARIOS FOR MEM THROUGH 15Z. THEREAFTER, LIFR STRATUS SHOULD
ERODE OVER EASTERN AR AND VFR SHOULD PREVAIL AREAWIDE.
AN OVERNIGHT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED AT MEM, WITH A BUMP
IN SURFACE WINDS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF HIGH IFR/LOW MVFR DECK DURING
THE OUTBOUND PUSH.
PWB
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...PWB
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