623
FXUS64 KMEG 210924
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
324 AM CST THU NOV 21 2024
..NEW SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 323 AM CST THU NOV 21 2024
CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND WITH FREEZING
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS.
BY MONDAY, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK INTO THE 70S WITH RAIN
CHANCES INCREASING ON TUESDAY. A TRICKY FORECAST EMERGES BY
MIDWEEK WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CST THU NOV 21 2024
COOL AND DRY AIR CONTINUES TO ENCOMPASS THE MID-SOUTH THIS
MORNING, WITH 3AM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS READING TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AREAWIDE. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REMAIN
CHILLY, IN THE LOW TO UPPER 50S.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, CURRENTLY SITUATED NORTH OF LAKE
EERIE, EJECTS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT TO THE MID-SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. THE PROBABILITY FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES INCREASES
OVERNIGHT, WITH AREAS IN WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI
MOST LIKELY TO SEE TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW 32 DEGREES. ANOTHER
COLD MORNING IS FORECAST ON SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO
THE LOW 30S IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. UNFORTUNATELY, THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL NOT LAST LONG AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN
ON SUNDAY. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, EXPECT HIGHS TO REBOUND TO THE
70S.
BEYOND MONDAY, THE FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERAL FRONTAL PASSAGES. MOST GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON A
COLD FRONT STALLING OVER THE MID-SOUTH ON TUESDAY, INSTEAD
FAVORING A FASTER MOVING SYSTEM THAT BRINGS NEGLIGIBLE RAINFALL
TOTALS. FOR THE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TIME FRAME, BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLES DEPICT A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING NEAR THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE EXACT TRACK THIS LOW
TAKES VARIES GREATLY BETWEEN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. AS A RESULT,
IMPACTS TO THE MID-SOUTH AT THIS TIME ARE TOO HARD TO TELL. THE
MOST REASONABLE SCENARIO: A WET THANKSGIVING DAY.
ANS
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
SKIES REMAIN CLEAR BEHIND A REINFORCING COLD FRONT AND THUS VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL. MAIN IMPACT THIS TAF PERIOD
IS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 25 KTS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
THURSDAY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED AROUND 10 KTS OVERNIGHT.
CAD
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...CAD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page