456
FXUS64 KMEG 151016
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
416 AM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
..NEW SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN MINIMAL TODAY BUT INCREASE BY TONIGHT
AS A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAILY SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE MID-SOUTH. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN END TO THE RAIN CHANCES BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MUCH COLDER AIR EXPECTED BY NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
GOES-16 WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITH NEUTRAL TO WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MEANWHILE,
A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW IN WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS BACK INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS. REGIONAL
WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS SHOW RAIN SHOWERS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER EARLY THIS MORNING. FOG HAS REMAINED MINIMAL AT BEST MAINLY
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND
ELEVATED BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 AM CST ARE IN
THE 50S AREAWIDE.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH
OF I-40 TODAY AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY. SOME LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TODAY. HOWEVER,
COVERAGE SHOULD BE MUCH LOWER THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN THE LACK OF
UPPER-LEVEL FORCING. ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY RETREATS BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL PUSH ANOTHER PACIFIC COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-SOUTH
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE HREF GRAND ENSEMBLE INDICATES THE
POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES TO INCREASE TO 100-400
J/KG SOUTH OF I-40 IN EAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN THIS INCREASED SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY REMAINS VERY LOW AS SHORT-TERM MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW A NEARLY SATURATED COLUMN. CONSEQUENTLY, ANY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED AT BEST.
LONG-RANGE MODELS INDICATE A STRONGER MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP
FROM CANADA INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BY MID-WEEK. THIS WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
TOWARDS LATE NEXT WEEKEND AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CST SAT DEC 14 2024
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST
TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI. MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD EXIT WEST
TENNESSEE OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS CONFINED TO
PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI ON SUNDAY. MOST OF THE MID-SOUTH
WILL SEE IFR/LIFR CEILINGS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME
DENSE FOG MAY FORM IN THE KJBR AREA OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS
ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...ARS
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