259
FXUS64 KMEG 151738
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1138 AM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 950 AM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
THE UPPER LOW THAT PRODUCED THE RAINFALL YESTERDAY INTO LAST NIGHT
IS QUICKLY SHIFTING EAST. THE ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT
STRETCHES FROM THE OH VALLEY THROUGH MEMPHIS INTO SOUTHERN AR.
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG CONTINUES WEST OF THE MS RIVER WITH A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH MS. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
STATIONARY OR PERHAPS DRIFT A LITTLE NORTH TODAY. THERE IS LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF FORCING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS SHORTWAVE MID
LEVEL RIDGING PREVAILS IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM SO A
MOSTLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER, LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN
TRAPPED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
ARRIVE EARLY THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN MINIMAL TODAY BUT INCREASE BY TONIGHT
AS A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAILY SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE MID-SOUTH. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN END TO THE RAIN CHANCES BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MUCH COLDER AIR EXPECTED BY NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
GOES-16 WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITH NEUTRAL TO WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MEANWHILE,
A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW IN WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS BACK INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS. REGIONAL
WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS SHOW RAIN SHOWERS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER EARLY THIS MORNING. FOG HAS REMAINED MINIMAL AT BEST MAINLY
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND
ELEVATED BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 AM CST ARE IN
THE 50S AREAWIDE.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH
OF I-40 TODAY AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY. SOME LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TODAY. HOWEVER,
COVERAGE SHOULD BE MUCH LOWER THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN THE LACK OF
UPPER-LEVEL FORCING. ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY RETREATS BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL PUSH ANOTHER PACIFIC COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-SOUTH
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE HREF GRAND ENSEMBLE INDICATES THE
POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES TO INCREASE TO 100-400
J/KG SOUTH OF I-40 IN EAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN THIS INCREASED SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY REMAINS VERY LOW AS SHORT-TERM MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW A NEARLY SATURATED COLUMN. CONSEQUENTLY, ANY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED AT BEST.
LONG-RANGE MODELS INDICATE A STRONGER MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP
FROM CANADA INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BY MID-WEEK. THIS WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
TOWARDS LATE NEXT WEEKEND AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 30 HOURS WILL BE LESS THAN IDEAL AS
IFR/LIFR CIGS, LLWS, AND PRECIPITATION IMPACTS ALL TERMINALS. A
STOUT LLJ WILL ORIENT SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS EVENING,
RESULTING IN FL020 WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS. IN ADDITION, SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 10-14 KTS, GUSTING TO 25
KTS. EXPECT LLWS TO CEASE AFTER SUNRISE AND FOR LIFR / IFR CIGS
TO PREVAIL. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
PERIOD. OVERALL, THUNDER CHANCES APPEAR RELATIVELY LOW FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF I-40. HOWEVER, ENOUGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS TO INCLUDE TSRA
MENTION IN JBR TAF.
ANS
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...ANS
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