141
FXUS64 KMEG 152047
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
247 PM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
..NEW SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
A WET AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A
COUPLE OF SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION INTERACT WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE RESULT WILL BE A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AND GRADUALLY COLDER AIR WILL
PREVAIL BY THE OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN AR
THIS AFTERNOON. THE PART OF THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN AR IS
STARTING TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AR AND NORTH CENTRAL MS IN
RESPONSE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH
ALONG WITH THE WARM FRONT THIS EVENING. THE MEMPHIS METRO WILL
HAVE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN BETWEEN 5 PM AND 9 PM. THUNDER
CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL WITH THIS ROUND. FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
PARTS OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST ARKANSAS THIS EVENING.
TEMPS WILL BE VERY MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND
60.
LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY, AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE MS
VALLEY THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SE INTO THE MID-SOUTH.
EXPECT NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA.
MUCAPE VALUES OF 100 J/KG TO 300 J/KG WILL SUPPORT EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL SAG INTO NORTH MS BY MONDAY NIGHT
WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THERE. TUESDAY
LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET AND MILD WITH THE FRONT STALLED ACROSS
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL
FORCING.
THE NEXT, AND LAST, IN THE PROCESSION OF SYSTEMS MOVES THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE STALLED FRONT WILL LIFT BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS NORTH OF THE AREA. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. FROM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WE ARE LOOKING AT
AROUND 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. SEVERE
WEATHER AND FLOODING CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL WITH NOTHING NOTEWORTHY
IN THE PARAMETER SPACE.
THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL SETTLE DOWN A BIT BY THE END OF THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH SETTLES ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. AND COLDER NW FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. AS
A RESULT WE WILL DRY OUT AND GRADUALLY COOL DOWN. THE WEEKEND
LOOKS DOWNRIGHT CHILLY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S AND
LOWS DEEP INTO THE 20S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 30 HOURS WILL BE LESS THAN IDEAL AS
IFR/LIFR CIGS, LLWS, AND PRECIPITATION IMPACTS ALL TERMINALS. A
STOUT LLJ WILL ORIENT SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS EVENING,
RESULTING IN FL020 WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS. IN ADDITION, SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 10-14 KTS, GUSTING TO 25
KTS. EXPECT LLWS TO CEASE AFTER SUNRISE AND FOR LIFR / IFR CIGS
TO PREVAIL. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
PERIOD. OVERALL, THUNDER CHANCES APPEAR RELATIVELY LOW FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF I-40. HOWEVER, ENOUGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS TO INCLUDE TSRA
MENTION IN JBR TAF.
ANS
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...ANS
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