200
FXUS64 KMEG 152344
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
544 PM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
A WET AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A
COUPLE OF SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION INTERACT WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE RESULT WILL BE A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AND GRADUALLY COLDER AIR WILL
PREVAIL BY THE OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN AR
THIS AFTERNOON. THE PART OF THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN AR IS
STARTING TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AR AND NORTH CENTRAL MS IN
RESPONSE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH
ALONG WITH THE WARM FRONT THIS EVENING. THE MEMPHIS METRO WILL
HAVE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN BETWEEN 5 PM AND 9 PM. THUNDER
CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL WITH THIS ROUND. FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
PARTS OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST ARKANSAS THIS EVENING.
TEMPS WILL BE VERY MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND
60.
LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY, AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE MS
VALLEY THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SE INTO THE MID-SOUTH.
EXPECT NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA.
MUCAPE VALUES OF 100 J/KG TO 300 J/KG WILL SUPPORT EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL SAG INTO NORTH MS BY MONDAY NIGHT
WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THERE. TUESDAY
LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET AND MILD WITH THE FRONT STALLED ACROSS
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL
FORCING.
THE NEXT, AND LAST, IN THE PROCESSION OF SYSTEMS MOVES THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE STALLED FRONT WILL LIFT BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS NORTH OF THE AREA. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. FROM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WE ARE LOOKING AT
AROUND 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. SEVERE
WEATHER AND FLOODING CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL WITH NOTHING NOTEWORTHY
IN THE PARAMETER SPACE.
THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL SETTLE DOWN A BIT BY THE END OF THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH SETTLES ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. AND COLDER NW FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. AS
A RESULT WE WILL DRY OUT AND GRADUALLY COOL DOWN. THE WEEKEND
LOOKS DOWNRIGHT CHILLY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S AND
LOWS DEEP INTO THE 20S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 543 PM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
LIFR CONDS WILL PERSIST FOR THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THEREAFTER, A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AND
RAISE CIGS SLIGHTLY TO IFR. A LITTLE BIT OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE WARM FRONT AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST. A LULL IN SHRAS WILL
OCCUR OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE TOMORROW MORNING WITH
SHRAS AFFECTING ALL SITES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THUNDER CHANCES
WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH JBR AND MEM
NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
AC3
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...AC3
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