350
FXUS64 KMEG 160946
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
346 AM CST MON DEC 16 2024
..NEW SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST MON DEC 16 2024
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH
THROUGH MID-WEEK AS A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL
BRING AN END TO THE WET WEATHER ALONG WITH A RETURN OF COLDER AND
DRIER AIR TO THE REGION FOR LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST MON DEC 16 2024
GOES-16 WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
MEANWHILE, LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A WARM FRONT FROM
NORTHERN MISSOURI SOUTHEAST INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE. A TRAILING COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM EASTERN KANSAS BACK THROUGH THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. REGIONAL WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS INDICATE A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS PRESENT OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. OTHERWISE, MAINLY
RAINFREE CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH. EARLY
MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE PREDOMINANTLY IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS
MOST LOCATIONS.
LOW VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT HAVE IMPROVED AS
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS HAVE LIFTED THE FOG INTO A STRATUS LAYER.
CONFIDENCE HAS DECREASED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LOW
VISIBILITIES THROUGH SUNRISE. THUS, THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS
CANCELLED. SHORT-TERM MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY. THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH ANOTHER WEAK COLD
FRONT INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
HREF ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES HAVE SUGGESTED THE CONVECTIVE
PARAMETER SPACE HAS IMPROVED FROM 24 HOURS AGO WITH SURFACE-BASED
CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 600 J/KG OVER PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS
AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. SHORT-TERM MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ANY
INSTABILITY SHOULD MAINLY BE ELEVATED AS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
MODERATELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THIS AREA MAY SUPPORT
THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CONTAINING SMALL HAIL
ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS
THIS AFOREMENTIONED AREA. OTHERWISE, THE STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL REMAINS MINIMAL AT BEST WITH BETTER FORCING
DISPLACED NORTHEAST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
AREA AS THIS NEXT FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE MID-
SOUTH ON TUESDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL THEN LIFT BACK NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT LATER TUESDAY. A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS ON WEDNESDAY, BRINGING
AN END TO THIS PROLONGED WET PATTERN. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
LONG-TERM MODELS STILL INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR COLD TEMPERATURES
DESPITE THE COLDEST AIR REMAINING NORTHEAST OVER ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR AT MEM AND MKL IN THE WAKE OF A
WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED,
HOWEVER, AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRATUS WILL POOL AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SHRA ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OUT OF ALL SITES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT LATE TOMORROW MORNING. THUNDER
PROBABILITIES STILL REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION AT LEAST VCTS AT
ALL SITES IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN CIGS WILL LIFT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
TOMORROW EVENING.
AC3
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...AC3
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