496
FXUS64 KMEG 161115
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
515 AM CST MON DEC 16 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST MON DEC 16 2024
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH
THROUGH MID-WEEK AS A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL
BRING AN END TO THE WET WEATHER ALONG WITH A RETURN OF COLDER AND
DRIER AIR TO THE REGION FOR LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST MON DEC 16 2024
GOES-16 WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
MEANWHILE, LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A WARM FRONT FROM
NORTHERN MISSOURI SOUTHEAST INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE. A TRAILING COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM EASTERN KANSAS BACK THROUGH THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. REGIONAL WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS INDICATE A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS PRESENT OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. OTHERWISE, MAINLY
RAINFREE CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH. EARLY
MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE PREDOMINANTLY IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS
MOST LOCATIONS.
LOW VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT HAVE IMPROVED AS
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS HAVE LIFTED THE FOG INTO A STRATUS LAYER.
CONFIDENCE HAS DECREASED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LOW
VISIBILITIES THROUGH SUNRISE. THUS, THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS
CANCELLED. SHORT-TERM MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY. THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH ANOTHER WEAK COLD
FRONT INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
HREF ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES HAVE SUGGESTED THE CONVECTIVE
PARAMETER SPACE HAS IMPROVED FROM 24 HOURS AGO WITH SURFACE-BASED
CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 600 J/KG OVER PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS
AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. SHORT-TERM MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ANY
INSTABILITY SHOULD MAINLY BE ELEVATED AS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
MODERATELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THIS AREA MAY SUPPORT
THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CONTAINING SMALL HAIL
ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS
THIS AFOREMENTIONED AREA. OTHERWISE, THE STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL REMAINS MINIMAL AT BEST WITH BETTER FORCING
DISPLACED NORTHEAST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
AREA AS THIS NEXT FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE MID-
SOUTH ON TUESDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL THEN LIFT BACK NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT LATER TUESDAY. A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS ON WEDNESDAY, BRINGING
AN END TO THIS PROLONGED WET PATTERN. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
LONG-TERM MODELS STILL INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR COLD TEMPERATURES
DESPITE THE COLDEST AIR REMAINING NORTHEAST OVER ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 512 AM CST MON DEC 16 2024
NO ADDITIONAL FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AS STRENGTHENING WINDS
HAVE LIFTED ANY REMAINING FOG INTO A STRATUS DECK.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TODAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT. ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED, TO SMALL
HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT.
IFR STRATUS WILL LIKELY REMAIN WITH US THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD AND
POSSIBLY EVEN LOWER BACK TO LIFR TONIGHT. I WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH
IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS UNTIL CLOSER TO 18Z TOMORROW AT MEM AND MKL
AND AFTER MIDDAY AT TUP AND THAT MAY STILL BE OPTIMISTIC AS
STRATUS IS NOTORIOUS FOR HANGING AROUND LONGER THAN EXPECTED IN
PROGRESSIVE PATTERNS. JBR MAY SEE AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING AROUND
12Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH UNTIL THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...JDS
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