966
FXUS64 KMEG 170011
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
611 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
A WET AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A
COUPLE OF SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION INTERACT WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE RESULT WILL BE A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AND GRADUALLY COLDER AIR WILL
PREVAIL BY THE OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH
NORTHERN ARKANSAS INTO THE ARKLATEX. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING
IS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, THE EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER
JET COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT IS PRODUCING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH OF I-40 THIS AFTERNOON. SOME INSTABILITY HAS MANAGED TO
ADVECT INTO THE MID-SOUTH AHEAD THE FRONT WITH MLCAPES RANGING
FROM 300-700 J/KG ACROSS EASTERN AR, EXTREME WEST TN AND NORTHWEST
MS. MEANWHILE, 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS PARAMETER SPACE MAY PRODUCE A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS. A QUICK SPIN UP TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH
0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES OVER 200 M2/S2 OVER A LARGE PART OF THE
AREA. THE INSTABILITY WILL WANE BY MID-EVENING, ENDING THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. EXPECT UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN SOUTH OF I-40 TONIGHT
WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH TO NORTH MS TONIGHT AND STALL. TUESDAY LOOKS
RELATIVELY QUIET FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH THE STALLED FRONT OVER
NORTH MS AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH LITTLE FORCING. TEMPS WILL BE
MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. A FEW AFTERNOON
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY NORTH MS AS THE STALLED FRONT
STARTS TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT MID
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING TOWARD THE REGION. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN MO AND
KY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. STORMS SHOULD REMAIN
ELEVATED AS SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY DOES NOT DEVELOP UNTIL WED
AFTERNOON AND BY THEN THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH MOST OF THE
MID-SOUTH. THIS FRONT WILL DROP ANOTHER INCH OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS.
AFTER THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE
PATTERN WILL SETTLE DOWN FOR A FEW DAYS. A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH NW FLOW PREDOMINATE OVER THE
MID-SOUTH. THE INITIAL AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS COOLER BUT NOT
SERIOUSLY COLD. EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S THURSDAY MORNING AND
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
A MORE SIGNIFICANT SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER
AIR FOR FRIDAY, LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AS ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE OOZES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OH VALLEY. EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AND LOWS DEEP INTO THE 20S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 559 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
A PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS SLOWLY MAKING
ITS WAY WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AIRSPACE. EXPECT PRECIP TO IMPACT
ALL FOUR SITES AT VARYING INTENSITIES, MOST HEAVILY AT MEM AND MKL
WITH INTERMITTENT TSRA IN THE NEXT TWO HOURS. TUP IS A BIT MORE
OF A WILD CARD AS THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO SLOW QUITE A BIT AFTER 06Z; THERE WILL MOST LIKELY BE
A MESSY AND DISORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS DRAPED ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI WELL INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY.
CEILINGS AT JBR LOOK TO REMAIN VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD, THOUGH
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE AS YOU MOVE SOUTH AND EAST FROM THERE.
TUP'S CEILINGS WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 1KFT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A LOW STRATUS DECK WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH, MARKING THE RETURN OF
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME PATCHY FOG. WINDS
WILL START FROM THE SOUTH AND CONSISTENTLY VEER WITH THE FROPA ALL
THE WAY BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
CAD
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...CAD
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