860
FXUS64 KMEG 170946
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
346 AM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
..NEW SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
WARM WEATHER AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME POTENTIALLY SEVERE, CONTINUE
TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT RAINFALL TOTALS OF AROUND AN INCH TO AN INCH AND
A HALF THROUGH TOMORROW WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES
BECOME PROGRESSIVELY COLDER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH
LOWS DROPPING TO THE MID 20S BY FRIDAY, LASTING THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
THE FORECAST. ALOFT, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO OUR NORTH IS CURRENTLY
PIVOTING EAST OUT OF THE CONUS. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THIS MORNING THROUGH TOMORROW ALONG A CONVECTIVELY
ENHANCED BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI. COVERAGE
SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE THIS MORNING AS FORCING AND INSTABILITY
DECREASE.
A NEW TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS TODAY,
EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO THE MID-SOUTH TONIGHT. THE BOUNDARY OVER
NORTH MISSISSIPPI WILL RESPOND, LIFTING NORTH INTO TENNESSEE BY
00Z WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER ARKANSAS. THE
PASSAGE OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING INSTABILITY BACK NORTH ALONG
WITH THE CHANCE FOR MORE THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 08Z WEDNESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT CRASHES INTO THIS AIRMASS. LATEST HREF GUIDANCE
ADVERTISES MUCAPE VALUES OF 750-1000 J/KG WITH UP TO 30 KNOTS 0-6
KM SHEAR. THIS PARAMETER SPACE IS INDICATIVE OF AN ENVIRONMENT
SUPPORTIVE OF MULTI-CELLS AND BOWING LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF
MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND AND HAIL. A LIMITED TORNADO THREAT DOES
EXIST DEPENDING ON SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY BEING ABLE TO
DEVELOP, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS LOW. CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND AN 1" - 1.5" WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS.
COLDER WEATHER WILL RETURN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE
UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
WILL BRING REINFORCING COLD FRONTS, EVENTUALLY BRINGING LOW
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 20S BY FRIDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED WITH THESE FRONTAL PASSAGES. THE UPPER PATTERN DOESN'T
SHOW SIGNS OF BUDGING UNTIL NEXT WEEK AND WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE
20S INTO MONDAY. ENSEMBLES DEPICT A TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS BY TUESDAY, BUT DON'T HAVE CONFIDENCE IN ITS AMPLITUDE AND
POSITION THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST. A WARMING TREND IS
POSSIBLE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE EXACT DETAILS STILL ON ANY
PRECIPITATION TOO FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
STRAGGLING SHOWERS FROM A LINE OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT TUP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AFTER THE
INITIAL LINE CLEARS OUT, THE LATEST CAMS KEEP A BROAD SWATH OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST MS DUE TO THE FRONT STALLING
OUT. WINDS INITIALLY FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE VEERING ALL
THE WAY BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY LATE TUESDAY EVENING AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT LIFTS BACK AS A WARM FRONT. VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS ARE BOTH EXPECTED TO TAKE A PLUNGE AS THIS HAPPENS,
CAUSING WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERHAPS SOME FOG AS EARLY
AS 21Z TUESDAY. THE FINAL CONVECTION-BRINGING FRONT IN THIS
SUCCESSIVE PATTERN WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ALONG WITH IT COMES MORE -SHRA, ANOTHER WIND SHIFT, AND
LOW STRATUS.
CAD
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...CAD
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