877
FXUS64 KMEG 171656
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1056 AM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1043 AM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
A STALLED FRONT STRETCHES FROM EAST TN THROUGH NORTH MS INTO THE
ARKLATEX LATE THIS MORNING. A FEW WEAK SHOWERS ARE MOVING ALONG
THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST MS OTRW THE WX IS QUIET ACROSS THE
MID-SOUTH. SOME CLEARING HAS OCCURRED ALONG THE KY/MO BORDERS AS
HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES INTO THE AREA. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE LOWER
50S NORTH TO AROUND 60 ALONG THE FRONT. THE STALLED FRONT WILL
START TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATER TODAY IN RESPONSE TO A
MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS. A FEW WARM AIR ADVECTION
SHOWERS WILL START POPPING UP ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL OCCUR LATER
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
WARM WEATHER AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME POTENTIALLY SEVERE, CONTINUE
TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT RAINFALL TOTALS OF AROUND AN INCH TO AN INCH AND
A HALF THROUGH TOMORROW WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES
BECOME PROGRESSIVELY COLDER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH
LOWS DROPPING TO THE MID 20S BY FRIDAY, LASTING THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
THE FORECAST. ALOFT, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO OUR NORTH IS CURRENTLY
PIVOTING EAST OUT OF THE CONUS. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THIS MORNING THROUGH TOMORROW ALONG A CONVECTIVELY
ENHANCED BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI. COVERAGE
SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE THIS MORNING AS FORCING AND INSTABILITY
DECREASE.
A NEW TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS TODAY,
EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO THE MID-SOUTH TONIGHT. THE BOUNDARY OVER
NORTH MISSISSIPPI WILL RESPOND, LIFTING NORTH INTO TENNESSEE BY
00Z WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER ARKANSAS. THE
PASSAGE OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING INSTABILITY BACK NORTH ALONG
WITH THE CHANCE FOR MORE THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 08Z WEDNESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT CRASHES INTO THIS AIRMASS. LATEST HREF GUIDANCE
ADVERTISES MUCAPE VALUES OF 750-1000 J/KG WITH UP TO 30 KNOTS 0-6
KM SHEAR. THIS PARAMETER SPACE IS INDICATIVE OF AN ENVIRONMENT
SUPPORTIVE OF MULTI-CELLS AND BOWING LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF
MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND AND HAIL. A LIMITED TORNADO THREAT DOES
EXIST DEPENDING ON SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY BEING ABLE TO
DEVELOP, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS LOW. CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND AN 1" - 1.5" WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS.
COLDER WEATHER WILL RETURN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE
UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
WILL BRING REINFORCING COLD FRONTS, EVENTUALLY BRINGING LOW
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 20S BY FRIDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED WITH THESE FRONTAL PASSAGES. THE UPPER PATTERN DOESN'T
SHOW SIGNS OF BUDGING UNTIL NEXT WEEK AND WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE
20S INTO MONDAY. ENSEMBLES DEPICT A TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS BY TUESDAY, BUT DON'T HAVE CONFIDENCE IN ITS AMPLITUDE AND
POSITION THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST. A WARMING TREND IS
POSSIBLE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE EXACT DETAILS STILL ON ANY
PRECIPITATION TOO FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
COMPLEX TAF PERIOD AHEAD AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS TO THE SOUTH
WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA NEAR THE END
OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. DO EXPECT AREAWIDE CIGS TO FALL TO AT
LEAST IFR BY THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME LIFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING -SHRA (POSSIBLY SOME -TSRA,
BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME) TO THE AREA, WITH AT LEAST SOME
VIS DROPS. CURRENT NE WINDS WILL VEER THROUGH THE PERIOD, BECOMING
W/NW NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...CMA
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