055
FXUS64 KMEG 172143
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
343 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
..NEW SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A FEW SEVERE STORMS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE. DRIER AND GRADUALLY COLDER
AIR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
A WARM FRONT STRETCHED FROM EAST TN ACROSS EXTREME NORTH MS INTO THE
RED RIVER VALLEY AT 21Z. THE FRONT IS STARTING TO LIFT NORTH IN
RESPONSE TO A MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE PLAINS. SOME
PATCHY FOG IS DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE FRONT AND THIS COULD OCCUR
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE AR AND THE MO BOOTHEEL.
AS WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES, EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO
POP UP ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES TONIGHT, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP AND TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN MO INTO WESTERN KY WHILE A
TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE MID-SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL REALLY RAMP UP AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACROSS NE AR AND THE MO BOOTHEEL AND SPREAD SLOWLY SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE LATEST CAMS ARE COMING IN A
LITTLE WETTER WITH FORECAST AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES. LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE ORIENTATION OF THE COLD FRONT COULD LEAD
TO SOME TRAINING AND SATURATED GROUND WILL PROMOTE RUNOFF. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
MID-SOUTH FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS
ALSO A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR
LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS MUCAPES CLIMB TO 500-1000
J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MARGINAL 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AT
30-40 KTS COULD SUPPORT FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
PERHAPS SOME LARGE JAIL. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE
MARGINAL WITH LESS THAN 250 J/KG. HOWEVER, SOME CAMS HAVE A LITTLE
MORE SB INSTABILITY SO CANNOT RULE OUT A QUICK SPIN UP THANKS TO
0-1KM HELICITY VALUES OF 200 M2/S2 AND SOMEWHAT SUPPORTIVE
HODOGRAPHS. TIMING FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL RANGE FROM 2 AM TONIGHT
TO 10 AM WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY TRACK ACROSS KY DURING WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT NE MS BY NOON WITH SOME LEFT
OVER POST FRONTAL RAIN. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH SOME CLEARING. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY COOL UNDER BRISK
NW WINDS. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT USHERING IN MUCH COOLER
AIR FOR THE END OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.
A MORE ZONAL PATTERN DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOMEWHAT MILDER
TEMPS RETURNING ALONG WITH PRECIP CHANCES BY TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
ANOTHER BUSY TAF CYCLE. MVFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE PRIOR TO WARM
FRONTAL ASCENT AND QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT. WAA
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. CAMS DEPICT
THIS TO BE VERY ISOLATED IN COVERAGE, BUT DIRECT IMPACTS TO THE
TERMINAL COULD RESULT IN BRIEF PERIODS OF LOWER VISBY. PREFRONTAL
CIGS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LOWER TO LIFR FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
AS THE WARM FRONT MAKES ITS FINAL WIGGLES. THE HRRR IS VERY
ROBUST FOR THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, BUT HAS
IT DRYING OUT BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS NORTHERN
TERMINALS RETURNING TO VFR BY 00Z TOMORROW, BUT AWAITING CONSENSUS
AMONGST MODELS.
DNM
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR ARZ026>028-035-036-048-
049.
MO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MOZ113-115.
MS...NONE.
TN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR TNZ001>004-019>022-
048>055-088>090.
PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...DNM
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