241
FXUS64 KMEG 182047
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
247 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
..NEW SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
MORNING LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
RETURN ON MONDAY, ALONG WITH RAIN CHANCES FOR THE CHRISTMAS
HOLIDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CLEAR THE MID-SOUTH AT
THIS HOUR. ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL CEASE THIS EVENING AS
A COLD FRONT PUSHES FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO GEORGIA & SOUTH
CAROLINA. THE BIG QUESTION FOR TONIGHT: LOW TEMPERATURES. CURRENT
GUIDANCE REMAINS 50/50 SPLIT ON THE REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. SHOULD THIS OCCUR, TEMPERATURES MAY BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. THE NBM CONTINUES TO FAVOR A
CLEAR NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND 30 DEGREES. HOWEVER, OPTED TO BLEND
CONSSHORT DATA INTO MINT TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER.
REGARDLESS, TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH COOLER.
COOL AND DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE MID-SOUTH ON
THURSDAY, RESULTING IN AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S. THIS CHILLY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY,
LAUNCHING YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE
20S.
UNFORTUNATELY, THESE CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL NOT PERSIST INTO THE
CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS ADVECT WARM AIR BACK TO THE
MID-SOUTH ON MONDAY. TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY'S FORECAST BECOMES A BIT
MUDDY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO CONFLICT WITH LOCATION &
TIMING OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. EXACT IMPACTS ARE A BIT
DIFFICULT TO TELL, BUT IT IS SAFE TO SAY THAT CHRISTMAS EVE WILL
BE WET FOR MANY MID-SOUTHERNERS.
ANS
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST WED DEC 18 2024
A FEW MORE HOURS OF SHRA REMAIN AT TUP, BEFORE LIFTING OUT WITH A
PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT. GUSTY NORTH POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL
OTHERWISE PREVAIL AREAWIDE.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS POST-FRONTAL CIGS. GOES VISIBLE
IMAGERY SHOWED AN AREA OF CLEARING OVER SOUTHERN MO LATE THIS
MORNING. ABOUT 100 MILES NORTH, AN MVFR DECK WAS DROPPING SOUTH
INTO CENTRAL MO. RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE CLEARING AREA MAY FILL
BACK IN AS MVFR CIGS, AS THIS AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE MIDSOUTH
TONIGHT.
LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EASE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN BY 12Z. EXPECT LIMITED SURFACE WIND IMPACTS FOR LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT OPERATIONS AT MEM.
PWB
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...PWB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page